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March 11, 2020

In March Report Conab Increases Brazil Soy, Lowers Brazil Corn

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their March Crop Report, Conab increased their 2019/20 Brazilian soybean estimate by 1.0 million tons to 124.2 million tons and they lowered their 2019/20 Brazilian corn estimate by 0.4 million tons to 100.0 million tons.

If the soybean estimate is achieved, it would be a record soybean production and 9.1 million tons more than the 115.0 million tons produced in 2018/19. This would represent an increase of 8% compared to last year. If the corn estimate is achieved, the Brazilian corn production in 2019/20 would be unchanged from last year.

The 2019/20 Brazilian soybean acreage was unchanged from last month at 36.8 million hectares (90.8 million acres), which is an increase of 2.6% compared to last year. The nationwide soybean yield was increased slightly in March to 3,373 kg/ha (49.9 bu/ac) compared to 3,349 kg/ha in February (49.5 bu/ac).

In their March Report, Conab lowered their estimate of the 2019/20 Brazilian corn crop by 0.4 million tons to 100.0 million. If verified, the Brazilian corn production in 2019/20 would be unchanged from last year. The lower estimate was mainly due to a lower production of the full-season corn in Brazil due to hot and dry weather in the state of Rio Grande do Sul.

Conab lowered their estimate of the full-season corn by 0.5 million tons to 25.5 million. The full-season corn acreage was unchanged from February at 4.2 million hectares (10.3 million acres). The full-season corn yield was lowered to 6,038 kg/ha (92.9 bu/ac) compared to 6,138 kg/ha in February (94.5 bu/ac).

The production estimate for the 2019/20 safrinha corn was increased 0.1 million tons to 73.3 million tons. The safrinha corn acreage was reduced 79,000 hectares from last month to 13.15 million hectares (32.4 million acres). The safrinha corn yield was increased to 5,579 kg/ha (85.9 bu/ac) compared to 5,539 kg/ha in February (85.3 bu/ac).

The final production of the safrinha corn will depend on the weather during April and May in the southern production areas where part of the safrinha corn was planted after the ideal planting window had closed.