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March 12, 2021

Conab Increases Soybean and Corn Estimates in March Report

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their March Crop Report, Conab increased their production estimate for both the Brazilian soybean and corn crops. The 2020/21 Brazilian soybean estimate was increased 1.3 million tons to 135.1 million. The 2020/21 Brazilian corn estimate was increased 2.5 million tons to 108.0 million.

Brazil's 2020/21 soybean crop will set a new record at 135.1 million tons of production, which is 10.2 million tons more (+8.2%) than the 124.8 million tons produced in 2019. The Brazilian soybean acreage was increased 200,000 hectares from last month (494,000 acres) to 38.46 million hectares (94.9 million acres). Brazilian farmers increased their soybean acreage 4.1% compared to last year. The nationwide soybean yield is now estimated at 3,513 kg/ha (52.3 bu/ac), which is up 4% compared to last year.

Brazil's 2020/21 corn production is estimated at 108.0 million tons, which is 5.5 million tons more (+5.4%) than the 102.5 million tons produced in 2019/20. The increase in production this month is due to an increase in the safrinha corn acreage, which is now estimated at 14.67 million hectares (36.2 million acres). Conab increased the safrinha corn acreage this month by 320,000 hectares (790,400 acres) and Brazilian farmers are now expected to increase their safrinha corn acreage 6.7% compared to last year. The safrinha corn yield is now estimated at 5,641 kg/ha (89.6 bu/ac).

The entire increase in corn production this month came from the increase in the safrinha corn estimate which is now 82.8 million tons. The full-season corn production is estimated at 23.4 million tons and the third corn crop in northeastern Brazil is estimated at 1.7 million tons.

The safrinha corn is being planted very late due to a delay in the soybean harvest. More than half of the safrinha corn will be planted after the ideal planting window has already closed, which increases the risk of lower yields.

If the corn production estimates verify, the safrinha corn would represent 76.6% of Brazil's total corn production, the full-season corn would represent 21.7%, and the third corn crop in northeastern Brazil would represent 1.6%.