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March 27, 2019

Brazilian Safrinha Corn in Good Condition, Dryness Worries

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The weather last week in Brazil continued to be beneficial for the safrinha corn crop, but the forecast does not look as promising. The forecast for this week in southern Brazil is calling for generally dry weather and cooler temperatures. The forecast for next week also looks dryer than normal. Looking longer term, meteorologists in Brazil are predicting a dryer than normal weather pattern during the month of April.

The weather in southern Brazil is important for the safrinha corn crop because Parana is the number two safrinha corn producing state with an estimated 18% of the total, followed by Mato Grosso do Sul with 13.8% and Sao Paulo with 3.7%. So, these three states account for about 35% of the total safrinha corn production. The state of Mato Grosso is the largest producer with approximately 43.5% of the anticipated production.

I think the earlier planted safrinha corn will do fine because it is further along in its development and the moisture supplies up to this point have generally been good. If there is going to be a problem with a lack of soil moisture, it could be with the later planted safrinha corn.

The most advanced corn in Mato Grosso is starting to pollinate. The safrinha corn in Parana is 4% germinating, 74% in vegetative development, 19% pollinating, and 3% filling gran. The safrinha corn in Parana is rated 5% average and 95% good. The potential problem for the corn in Mato Grosso is running out of water before the crop is mature, while in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, the potential problem is running out of water and possibly freezing temperatures before the crop is mature.

Mato Grosso - The safrinha corn planting in Mato Grosso is 100% complete and the most advanced corn is starting to pollinate. The weather thus far in Mato Grosso has been good for the safrinha corn and farmers are optimistic about their safrinha corn crop.

Parana - Farmers in the state increased their safrinha corn acreage by 4% and the weather has generally been beneficial thus far for the corn. The forecast is calling for dryer weather, which could become a concern for the later planted corn. Farmers are hoping that early planting of the safrinha corn will allow the corn to get through its critical reproductive phase before the end of the summer rainy season or the onset of cold weather. For the last four years in western Parana, they have had problems with dry weather before the corn crop was mature.