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March 9, 2018

Conab Increases Brazilian Soy Estimates and Trims Corn Estimate

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their latest monthly report released yesterday, Conab increased their estimate of the 2017/18 Brazilian soybean crop and they trimmed their estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop.

Conab increased the 2017/18 Brazilian soybean estimate 1.5 million tons to 113.0 million. The estimate is now just slightly less than the 114.0 million tons produced last year. The Brazilian soybean acreage is estimated at 35.04 million hectares (86.5 million acres), which is basically unchanged from last month and up 3.4% from last year.

The nationwide soybean yield in Brazil is estimated at 3,225 kg/ha (46.7 bu/ac), which is up from last month's estimate of 3,185 kg/ha (46.1 bu/ac), but still down 4.1% from last year's yield of 3,365 kg/ha (48.7 bu/ac). The soybeans in Brazil are currently about 45% harvested.

As far as the corn crop is concerned, Conab is now estimating the 2017/18 Brazilian corn production at 87.2 million tons, which is down 0.8 million tons from their February estimate and down 10.5 million tons from last year (-10.8%).

The full-season corn production is now estimated at 25.1 million tons, which is up 0.4 million tons from their February estimate, but still down 17.5% from last year (-5.3 million tons). The full-season corn acreage is estimated at 4.99 million hectares (12.3 million acres), which is down 8.9% from last year. The full-season corn crop represents approximately 29% of Brazil's total corn production.

Conab is now estimating the safrinha corn production at 62.1 million tons, which is down 1.1 million tons from their February estimate and down 7.8% from last year (-5.2 million tons). There has been a lot of speculation concerning the safrinha corn acreage and Conab now estimates that the acreage will be down 5.9% compared to last year to 11.38 million hectares (28.1 million acres).

The safrinha corn in Brazil is approximately 80% planted and the eventual yield will be determined by the weather over the next three months. Conab is estimating the safrinha corn yield at 5,458 kg/ha (84.0 bu/ac), which would be down 1.9% from last year's yield. The safrinha crop represents approximately 71% of Brazil's total corn production.