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May 10, 2019

Conab Increases Brazilian Soy and Corn Production in May Report

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their May Crop Report, Conab increased their estimate of the 2018/19 Brazilian soybean production by 0.49 million tons to 114.3 million. They also increased their estimate of the 2018/19 Brazilian corn production by 1.25 million tons to 95.2 million.

The 2018/19 Brazilian soybean harvest is nearing completion with only a few percent of the crop left to harvest. At the current estimate (114.3 million tons) the 2018/19 Brazilian soybean production is down -4.2% or 4.9 million tons from last year's production of 119.2 million tons. An extended period of dryness in southern Brazil between late November and early January, negatively impacted the early maturing soybeans that were filling pods during that time. Improved weather starting in mid-January allowed the later maturing soybeans to compensate for some of the earlier loses.

The nationwide soybean yield is now estimated at 3,193 kg/ha (47.2 bu/ac) compared to last year's yield of 3,394 kg/ha (50.2 bu/ac). Brazilian farmers planted 35.8 million hectares of soybeans in 2018/19 (88.4 million acres), which was an increase of +1.9% compared to 2017/18.

In their May report, Conab estimated the 2018/19 Brazilian corn production at 95.2 million tons, which was up 1.25 million tons from the prior month. That now puts the crop at +18% more than last year's crop (80.7 million tons) or an increase of 14.5 million tons.

The May report increased the full-season corn production 0.23 million tons from last month to 25.8 million. The full-season corn acreage is now estimated at 4.9 million hectares (12.1 million acres) or down -2.3% from last year. The full-season corn yield is estimated at 5,256 kg/ha (80.9 bu/ac) or -0.4% less than last year.

The safrinha corn production was increased 1.01 million tons from last month to 69.1 million tons. The safrinha corn acreage is now estimated at 12.27 million hectares (30.3 million acres) or +6.4% more than last year. The safrinha corn yield is estimated at 5,633 kg/ha (86.7 bu/ac) or +20.5% more than last year's yield of 4,673 kg/ha (71.9 bu/ac).

Brazilian farmers took advantage of the early soybean harvest to increase their safrinha corn acreage. The weather has generally been good for the safrinha corn crop which now represents 72.5% of Brazil's total corn production.