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May 13, 2015

2015 U.S. Acreage, Yields, and Production Estimates

One result of this spring's relatively good planting conditions is that there will be much less prevent plant and replant needed compared to last year (at least that is the way it appears right now). As a result, the "acreage pie" is expanding with these additional acres and the question now is how many of these additional acres will be planted to corn and how many will be planted to soybeans.

As a result of the good planting conditions, at the present time, it is anticipate that there may be an additional 1.5 million acres of corn planted and 2.0 million additional acres of soybeans planted this spring. Those acres would be in addition to the acres indicated in the March Prospective Planting Report. Therefore, the 2015 U.S. corn planted acreage might be 90.7 million acres (89.199 mac from the March report plus an additional 1.5 mac = 90.699 mac planted). The 2015 U.S. soybean acreage might be 86.63 million acres (84.635 mac from the March report plus an additional 2.0 mc = 86.63 mac). See table below.

The percentage of the crops harvested for grain this growing season could end up being on the upper end of the scale due to a lack of saturated conditions or the need for replanting. Therefore, I am going to use 91.8% of the corn planted acreage being harvested for grain or 83.26 million harvested acres. I am going to use 99.2% of the soybean planted acreage being harvested for grain or 85.94 million harvested acres.

Choosing a yield this early in the season is just a guess and last week I indicated that I would start off the growing season using a corn yield of 166.0 bu/ac. The good start we have seen thus far would probably justify a more optimistic view of corn yields to maybe 167 or 168 bu/ac, but I think we should wait a little longer before making that our "official" yield estimate. For soybeans, an early start is not nearly as important as it is for corn, so my yield estimate for the 2015 U.S. soybean crop will remain at 46.0 bu/ac for the time being.

Using these revised figures, the 2015 U.S. corn production is estimated at 13.82 billion bushels and the soybean production is estimated at 3.95 billion bushels. These estimates are just initial guesses and they will be revised during the course of the growing season.

 2015 U.S. Crop Production 
 CornSoybeans
March Prospective Acreage89.199 mac84.635 mac
Additional acreage 1.500 mac 2.000 mac
Total planted90.699 mac86.635 mac
Harvested for grain 83.261 mac (91.8%)85.941 mac (99.2%)
Yield166 bu/ac46.0 bu/ac
Total production13.82 billion bushels3.95 billion bushels