Back
May 13, 2020

Conab Lowers Brazilian Soybean Estimate, Increases Corn Estimate

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their May Crop Report released on Tuesday, May 12th, Conab lowered their estimate of the 2019/20 Brazilian soybean crop while they increased their estimate of the 2019/20 Brazilian corn crop.

The 2019/20 Brazilian soybean estimate was lowered 1.74 million tons from their April estimate to 120.32 million tons. If verified, the Brazilian soybean crop would be 4.6% larger than last year's crop of 115.0 million tons. The 2019/20 Brazilian soybean acreage was left unchanged from last month at 36.84 million hectares (88.4 million acres), which represents an increase of 2.7% compared to last year.

The lower soybean production was the result of reduced yields. Conab is now estimating the nationwide soybean yield at 3,266 kg/ha (48.3 bu/ac) compared to their April estimate of 3,313 kg/ha (49.0 bu/ac).

Conab increased the 2019/20 Brazilian corn estimate 0.47 million tons to 102.3 million compared to their April estimate of 101.8 million tons. All the increase in the corn estimate came from a larger safrinha corn production. They are now projecting a safrinha corn production of 75.9 million tons compared to their April estimate of 75.4 million tons.

The larger safrinha corn estimate was the result of increased acreage. Conab is now estimating the 2019/20 Brazilian safrinha corn acreage at 13.783 million hectares (34.0 million acres), which represents an increase of 320,000 hectares (790,000 acres) compared to their April estimate. If verified, the 2019/20 safrinha corn acreage would be 7% larger compared to a year earlier.

Conab lowered the safrinha corn yield to 5,508 kg/ha (84.8 bu/ac) from the April estimate of 5,603 kg/ha (86.2 bu/ac).

The full-season corn crop in Brazil now represents 24.6% of Brazil's total corn production with the safrinha crop representing 74.1% and the third crop representing 1.1%.