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May 14, 2015

Conab Increases Brazilian Soy Production, Lowers Corn Production

In their May Crop Report, Conab increased their Brazilian soybean estimate by 0.79 million tons to 95.07 million tons. If realized, this would represent a 10.4% increase (8.94 million tons) over the 86.12 million tons produced in 2013/14. The soybean acreage is estimated at 31.57 million hectares (77.9 million acres) or 4.6% more than in 2013/14. The nationwide soybean yield is estimated at 3,011 kg/ha or 43.6 bu/ac, which is 5.5% higher than the 2,854 kg/ha (41.3 bu/ac) registered in 2013/14.

Mato Grosso is the leading soybean producing state at 27.8 million tons or 29.3% of the total Brazilian production followed by Parana at 17.1 million tons or 18.0% of the total, and Rio Grande do Sul at 14.6 million tons or 15.4% of the total. The new expansion area of northeastern Brazil, which includes the states of Bahia, Maranhao, Piaui, and Tocantins, has a production estimated at 10.3 million tons or 10.8% of Brazil's total.

In a bit of a reversal from recent months, Conab lowered their estimate of the Brazilian corn crop by 0.391 million tons to 78.59 million tons. If realized, this would represent a decline of 1.8% compared to the 80.95 million tons produced in 2013/14. In the May report, Conab increased their estimate of the full-season corn production while they lowered their estimate of the safrinha corn production.

Brazil's full-season corn production was increased 0.40 million tons to 30.70 million or 39% of Brazil's total corn crop. The full-season corn acreage is estimated at 6.12 million hectares (15.1 million acres), which represents a decline of 7.5% compared to last year. The full-season corn yield is estimated at 5,013 kg/ha or 77.2 bu/ac.

Brazil's safrinha corn production was reduced 0.79 million tons to 47.89 million tons or 61% of Brazil's total corn crop. The safrinha corn acreage is estimated at 9.08 million hectares (22.4 million acres), which is 1.4% less than last year. The safrinha corn yield is estimated at 5,273 kg/ha or 81.2 bu/ac. The leading safrinha corn producing state is Mato Grosso with 36% of the total (17.32 million tons), followed by Parana at 21% (10.04 million tons), Mato Grosso do Sul with 17% (7.98 million tons), and Goias at 13% (6.22 million tons).

The safrinha corn production was lowered due to delays in getting the crop planted in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul. Wet weather delayed the safrinha corn planting in Parana and the farmers in the state did not complete their corn planting until sometime in April. The concern is that the later planted corn could be adversely impacted by cold temperatures before the crop is mature.

In Mato Grosso do Sul, 30% of the safrinha corn was planted outside the ideal planting window and planting was not completed until March. The concern in that state is the possibility of cold weather impacting the crop in the southern part of the state and dry weather impacting the later planted crop in the northern part of the state. As a result of the planting delays, the nationwide safrinha corn yield was lowered 1.8 bu/ac to 81.2 bu/ac compared to 83.0 bu/ac in April.