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May 14, 2020

Agroconsult Lowers Estimate of Brazil's Safrinha Corn Production

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The Brazilian consulting service Agroconsult recently lowered their estimate of the safrinha corn production in Brazil. They are now estimating the 2019/20 safrinha corn production at 72.2 million tons compared to their previous estimate of 74.7 million tons. If verified, this would represent a decline of 5.8% compared to last year's production of 76.7 million tons.

The reason for their lower production estimate is percistent dry weather in the southern production states of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, and parts of Minas Gerais. Prior to the rains that fell in this area this week, some locations had not received a rain for three weeks or more.

Agroconsult maintained their 2019/20 Brazilian safrinha corn acreage at 13.1 million hectares (32.3 million acres), but they lowered their nationwide yield to 92 sacks per hectare (85.0 bu/ac). Their estimate for Brazil's 2019/20 corn production is now 99.0 million tons.

Most estimates of Brazil's safrinha corn production have been declining in recent weeks with the noted exception of Conab. In their May Crop Report released on Tuesday, May 12th, Conab increased their estimate of the 2019/20 Brazilian corn production 0.47 million tons to 102.3 million. The increase came from a higher estimate of the safrinha corn production which they now estimate at 75.9 million tons compared to their April estimate of 75.4 million.

In their May report, Conab increased their estimate of the safrinha corn acreage by 320,000 hectares (790,000 acres) to 13.78 million hectares (34.0 million acres), but they lowered the nationwide yield to 91.8 sacks per hectare (84.8 bu/ac).