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May 26, 2020

Safrinha Corn Helped by Recent Rains in Southern Brazil

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

There have been three rain events in southern Brazil over the last three weeks. The heaviest rains occurred over the weekend with approximately 2 inches in Parana and 1 inch in Mato Grosso do Sul. The cumulative rainfall over the last two weeks in most of the safrinha corn areas of southern Brazil was probably 2-3 inches. These rains will help the later developing corn, but they came too late for a lot of the earlier planted safrinha corn.

The remaining concern going forward is the risk of potential frost/freeze. There have already been two frost events in southern Brazil, but they did not occur in the safrinha corn areas. According to the Brazilian National Weather Service, there may be another potential frost this week and again in early June, but once again, it probably will not have much of an impact on the safrinha corn. The second half of June is forecasted to be warmer and after that, the safrinha corn will be getting much closer to maturity, so frost would be less of a concern.

Mato Grosso - Some of the early safrinha corn harvest in Mato Grosso has already started. The earliest planted corn was in the western part of the state, so that is where the harvest should start first. In fact, in the municipality of Campos de Julio, which is located in western Mato Grosso, the early safrinha corn harvest has started with early yields in the range of 120 sacks per hectare (110.8 bu/ac). They experienced periods of dry weather during the growing season, so these are about average type of yields.

In the municipality of Sapezal, which is located in western Mato Grosso, the local director of the Soybean & Corn Producers Association (Aprosoja/MT) estimates that the safrinha corn yields will be less than last year due to periods of dry weather during March and April when the corn was filling grain. He estimates the local yields will be in the range of 105 sacks per hectare (97 bu/ac).

Farmers in the state continue to be very aggressive sellers of their corn. The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) estimates that farmers have sold 82% of their anticipated 2019/20 production and approximately 30% of their 2020/21 production.

Parana - The Department of Rural Economics (Deral) is now rating the safrinha corn in Parana as 16% poor, 39% average, and 45% good. This is the lowest rating of the season thus far. The safrinha corn is 10% in vegetative development, 38% pollinating, 44% filling grain, and 8% mature. The safrinha corn harvest in Parana will start sometime in June and finish about the end of August.

Minas Gerais - The combination of late planting and irregular rainfall will probably result in lower safrinha corn yields across the state compared to last year when the corn yields were in the range of 110 to 120 sacks per hectare (101.6 to 110.8 bu/ac).