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May 29, 2019

2019 U.S. Planting Progresses at Record Slow Pace

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In the latest Crop Progress Report, the 2019 U.S. corn crop was 58% planted as of last Sunday compared to 90% last year and 90% for the 5-year average. The corn planting advanced only 9% last week. Planting progress has been better in the western Corn Belt where Nebraska's corn is 81% planted (average is 94%), Iowa is 76% (average is 96%), Kansas is 70% (average is 88%), and Missouri is 65% (average is 95%).

Planting progress has been slower in the eastern Corn Belt where the Illinois corn crop is 35% planted (average is 95%), Indiana is 22% (average is 85%), and Ohio is 22% (average is 78%). In the northwestern Corn Belt, the corn in Minnesota is 66% planted (average is 93%), North Dakota is 63% (average is 85%), and South Dakota is 25% (average is 90%).

The growing season actually starts when the corn emerges and emergence has been slow this spring. The 2019 U.S. corn is 32% emerged compared to 69% last year and 69% for the 5-year average.

The prevent plant date for corn was May 25th (last Saturday) for most of the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Kansas. The prevent plant date for corn in Iowa and most of Minnesota is May 31st (next Friday) and the prevent plant date for corn in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio is June 5th.

It is entirely possible that 2019 could see a record amount of prevent plant acreage of 7-8-9 million acres or possibly more. At this point the amount of prevent plant acres is unclear, but I think we can say there will probably be more for corn than for soybeans and that there will be more in the northern locations than in the southern locations.

Planting progress for the 2019 U.S. soybean crop has also been very slow with 29% planted compared to 74% last year and 66% for the 5-year average. The soybean emergence is 11% compared to 44% last year and 35% for the 5-year average.

The soybean planting advanced only 10% last week. The soybean planting is more advanced in the western Corn Belt with Nebraska 56% planted (average is 74%), Iowa 32% (average is 77%), Kansas is 22% (average is 41%), and Missouri is 12% (average is 53%). Soybean planting is furthest behind in the eastern Corn Belt with Illinois 14% planted (average is 70%), Indiana is 11% (average is 63%), and Ohio is 11% (average is 55%). Soybean planting in the northwestern Corn Belt was led by North Dakota at 46% planted (average is 65%), Minnesota is 35% (average is 77%), and South Dakota is 6% (average is 64%).

The prevent plant date for soybeans is June 10th in Minnesota, the Dakotas, and Nebraska. The prevent plant date for soybeans is June 15th in Iowa and the northern third of Illinois and the prevent plant date is June 20th for 2/3 of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and most of Missouri.

At this point, I don't think we can say anything definitive about the potential amount of prevent plant soybean acreage other than if the weather during early June continues to be excessively wet, some farmers might opt for prevent plant.