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November 12, 2019

November Crop Report - U.S. Corn Yields Lowered, Soy Unchanged

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In last week's November Crop Report, the 2019 U.S. corn yield declined from October, but the 2019 U.S. soybean yield was unchanged from October. The planted and harvested areas for both crops were unchanged.

2019 U.S. Corn Production - In the November Crop Report, the USDA left the corn planted area unchanged from October at 89.9 million acres. The corn harvested area was also left unchanged at 81.8 million acres. Therefore, the percent harvested remained unchanged from October at 90.9%.

They indicated in the report that they resurveyed the corn and soybean acreage in Minnesota and North Dakota due to the snowfall in early October, but no changes were made in the corn planted or harvested areas.

Apparently, record late planting in the U.S. and record heavy snowfall in early October that resulted in very slow harvesting, had no significant impact on the percent harvested which remained at 90.9% compared to the long term average of 91.1%. I find that a little hard to believe, so I continue to feel the corn harvested acreage could decline a little in the January report.

` The 2019 U.S. corn yield was lowered 1.4 bu/ac from October to 167.0 bu/ac. Less than 50% of the corn had been harvested when they conducted the survey for the November Crop Report. The latest planted corn is expected to be the lowest yielding, but most of that corn had not been harvested at the time the survey was conducted. Therefore, I feel they could lower the corn yield again in the January report. If the U.S. corn yield does decline in January, it might only be 1-3 bushels per acre.

2019 U.S. Soybean Production - In the November Crop Report, the USDA left the soybean planted area unchanged from October at 76.5 million acres. The soybean harvested area was also left unchanged at 75.6 million acres. Therefore, the percent harvested was left unchanged from October at 98.8%.

The resurvey of Minnesota and North Dakota resulted in no changes in the soybean planted or harvested areas. The percent harvested remained unchanged at 98.8% compared to the long term average of 99.1%. I have the same feeling about soybeans as I do about the corn crop - apparently record late planting and record early snow has very little impact on soybean harvested acreage. I do not think that is entirely true, therefore I feel the soybean harvested area may decline a little in the January report.

The 2019 U.S. soybean yield was left unchanged from October at 46.9 bu/ac, but the survey was conducted before many of what is expected to be the lowest yielding soybeans in the Midwest had been harvested. Additionally it was a dry end to the growing season for the late planted and double crop soybeans in southern Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee. The soybean yields for the late planted soybeans in those areas are expected to be disappointing and they were not reflected in the November report.

Therefore, I feel the soybean yield might decline slightly in the January report. If the U.S. soybean yield does decline, it will probably be in the range of 1.0 bushel per acre or less.

Bottom Line - The corn yield declined as expected, but it was a surprise that the soybean yield remained unchanged. It was also somewhat of a surprise that the planted and harvested acreage for both crops were unchanged. Therefore, I am expecting the 2019 U.S. production estimates for both corn and soybeans to decline a little more in the January report.