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November 14, 2019

Conab Increases 2019/20 Brazilian Soy 0.47 mt, Corn Unchanged

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their second evaluation of the 2019/20 Brazilian crop production, Conab increased their estimate of the 2019/20 Brazilian soybean crop by 0.47 million tons to 120.86 million tons. Their estimate of the 2019/20 Brazilian corn crop was essentially unchanged from last month at 98.36 million tons. The survey for the report was conducted from October 28th to November 1st.

Conab is now estimating the 2019/20 Brazilian soybean crop at 120.86 million tons, which is an increase of 0.47 million tons from their October estimate of 120.39 million. The soybean acreage was increased 140,000 hectares from the October report to 36.71 million hectares (90.6 million acres). The soybean yield remained unchanged at 3,292 kg/ha (48.7 bu/ac).

The 2019/20 Brazilian soybean acreage increased 2.3% compared to last year, the soybean yield is up 2.7% from last year, and the soybean production is up 5.1% from last year's production of 115.0 million tons.

The 2019/20 Brazilian corn estimate was virtually unchanged from October at 98.36 million tons. Starting this year, Conab has divided the Brazilian corn production into three crops. The first crop is the full-season corn planted in southern Brazil, the second crop is the safrinha corn planted after the soybeans are harvested, and the third crop is corn planted in northeastern Brazil mainly by small family farmers for their small livestock operations. In prior years, the third crop of corn was included with the safrinha crop.

2019/20 Brazilian Corn Production

  Area YieldProduction
Full-season corn 4,142,000 ha 6,341 kg/ha (97.6 bu/ac) 26.29 mt
Safrinha corn12,878,000 ha 5,508 kg/ha (84.8 bu/ac)70.93 mt
Third corn crop 514,300 ha 2,255 kg/ha (34.7 bu/ac) 1.15 mt
Total17,534,300 ha 98.36 mt

If these production numbers are verified, the full-season corn would represent 26.6% of Brazil's total corn crop with the safrinha corn representing 72.1% and the third crop representing 1.1% of the total crop.

Conab made no adjustments to their estimate of the safrinha corn production. They used the same acreage as in the previous year, which is their standard practice for this time of the year. They will release their first official survey of the safrinha corn crop in their February 2020 Crop Report.