October 10, 2011

Center west Region Accounts for 75% of New Soy Prod. In Brazil

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In Conab's first evaluation of the 2011/12 Brazilian soybean crop, they indicated that the Center west region of Brazil will account for approximately 75% of the increased soybean acreage in Brazil. The total Brazilian soybean acreage is estimated to be 24.6 to 25.0 million hectares or 2% to 3.5% larger than 2010/11.

The state of Mato Grosso will be the state in the center-west region with the largest increased soybean acreage. They are estimating that the soybean acreage in Mato Grosso will increase 304,000 hectares or 4.5% to 6.7 million hectares. Of this 300,000 hectare increase, approximately 200,000 is coming from the conversion of pastures to row crops in the eastern part of the state. Farmers are increasing the row crop acreage in this manor due to tighter environmental restrictions on the clearing of new land. The soybean acreage in Goias is expected to increase 130,000 hectares and in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul it is expected to increase 70,000 hectares.

In Mato Grosso, the statewide soybean yield in 2011/12 is expected to be 3,100 kg/ha (44.9 bu/ac), which would be a decline from the 3,190 kg/ha (46.2 bu/ac) that the farmers harvested last year. The decline is being attributed to the fact that the 300,000 new soybean hectares in the state will have lower yields compared to the more established production. Producers in the state expect to harvest 40 to 45 sacks per hectare from the new acreage (2,400 to 2,700 kg/ha or 34.8 to 39.1 bu/ac) whereas the more established production could produce 50 to 55 sacks per hectare (43.5 to 47.8 bu/ac)

In 2010/11 Mato Grosso produced 20.4 million tons of soybeans and this year the production could be as high as 21 or 22 million tons or approximately 30% of Brazil total soybean crop.

The rainfall in the center-west region of Brazil is picking up in frequency and coverage. The only region of Mato Grosso where the rains have been inadequate to start planting has been in the far eastern region of the state. Everywhere else in the state the farmers are actively planting their soybeans. Since the soybeans are being planted in a timely fashion in Mato Grosso, the safrinha corn is also expected to be planted on time as well.

Most farmers in Brazil are expecting a good year given the fact that they generally sold last year's crop for a good price and the weakening of the Brazilian currency is expected to result in generally good prices again this growing season.