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October 11, 2016

Brazilian Cotton Production to Rebound from Disappointing 2015/16

According to the first crop estimate of the 2016/17 growing season issued by Conab last week, the 2016/17 Brazilian cotton production is expected to increase +9.3 to +15.1% compared to last year to a range of 1.408 to 1.483 million tons even though the cotton acreage in Brazil is expected to decline from -0.7% to -5.8%. The 2015/16 cotton crop in Brazil was severely impacted by hot and dry weather during the growing season resulting in a production of 1.288 million tons.

Mato Grosso is the largest cotton producing state in Brazil responsible for nearly 70% of Brazil's total cotton production. The 2016/17 cotton acreage in Mato Grosso is estimated in the range of 594,800 to 618,800 hectares or -1% to +3% compared to the 600,800 hectares planted in 2015/16. Cotton yields are expected to be much better than last year's drought reduced crop and the total production in the state is estimated in the range of 938,100 to 976,000 tons or +6.5% to +10.8% more than the 880,500 tons produced last year.

The second major producer is the state of Bahia and the cotton acreage in the state is estimated in the range of 192,900 to 211,700 hectares or -10% to -18% compared to the 235,200 hectares planted last year. Even though the acreage is down from last year, the production is expected to rebound to a range of 295,500 to 324,300 tons or +19.5% to +31.1% compared to the 247,300 tons produced last year.

Of the cotton produced in Mato Grosso, 60% is exported and the remainder is consumed domestically.