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October 11, 2017

Conab 1st 2017/18 Brazilian Crop Est. - Soybeans 107 mt, Corn 93 mt

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Conab released their first estimates for the 2017/18 Brazilian growing season on Tuesday morning. They are estimating the Brazilian soybean production at approximately 107.1 million tons (the range of their soybean production estimates is 106.0 to 108.2 million tons). If this production estimate verifies, the 2017/18 Brazilian soybean production would be approximately 7 million tons lower than in 2016/17.

Conab estimated that the soybean acreage will increase approximately 2.7% to 34.83 million hectares (86.0 million acres). This is the mid-point of their acreage range which is 34.46 to 35.20 million hectares. The nationwide soybean yield for 2017/18 is estimated at 3,075 kg/ha (44.5 bu/ac), which is down 8.6% compared to last year when the nationwide soybean yield was 3,364 kg/ha (48.7 bu/ac).

For the 2017/18 Brazilian corn crop, Conab is estimating the total Brazilian corn production at 92.8 million tons (the range of their corn production estimate is 92.1 to 93.6 million tons). If verified, the 2017/18 corn production would be approximately 5 million tons less than in 2016/17.

They are estimating the full-season corn production at approximately 25.7 million tons and the safrinha corn production at 67.1 million tons. If those estimates verify, the full-season corn crop would represent 28% of Brazil's total corn production and the safrinha corn crop would represent 72% of Brazil's total corn production.

They are estimating that the full-season corn acreage will decline approximately 8% to 5.0 million hectares (12.3 million acres). For the safrinha corn acreage, they simply carried forward the acreage from last year at 12.10 million hectares (29.8 million acres), which is what they normally do at this time of the year. Conab typically releases their first safrinha corn acreage estimate in their February Crop Report. They did adjust downward slightly the 2017/18 safrinha corn yield to 5,547 kg/ha (85.4 bu/ac), which is 0.5 bu/ac lower than last year.