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October 11, 2019

Conab - 2019/20 Brazil Soy 120.3 mt (+4.7%), Corn 98.3 mt (-1.7%)

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their October Crop Report issued on Thursday, Conab released their first estimates of the 2019/20 Brazilian crop production. They estimate that the 2019/20 Brazilian soybean production will be 120.3 million tons, or 4.7% more than last year's production of 115.0 million tons. They estimate that the 2019/20 Brazilian corn production will be 98.3 million tons, or 1.7% less than last year's production of 100.0 million tons.

2019/20 Brazilian Soybeans - The 2019/20 Brazilian soybean acreage is expected to increase 1.9% to 36.57 million hectares (90.3 million acres). The nationwide soybean yield is expected to be 3,292 kg/ha (48.7 bu/ac) compared to last year's yield of 3,206 kg/ha (47.4 bu/ac) with a total production of 120.3 million tons or 4.7% more than last year.

The state of Mato Grosso will increase its soybean acreage by 2.6% to 9.95 million hectares (27.2% of the total) followed by Rio Grande do Sul which will increase 1.0% to 5.83 million hectares (15.9% of the total), Parana will increase 0.9% to 5.48 million hectares (14.9% of the total), Goias will increase 2.0% to 3.54 million hectares (9.6% of the total), and Mato Grosso do Sul will increase 3.4% to 2.95 million hectares (8.0% of the total.

2019/20 Brazilian Corn - Conab made a change this year in how they estimate Brazil's corn production. Instead of dividing Brazil's corn production into two crop, the full-season corn which is being planted now, and the safrinha corn, which will be planted in January and February after the soybeans are harvested, they have added a third crop. The third corn crop is the one that is planted in northeastern Brazil mainly by small family farmers. Traditionally, this third crop was added into the safrinha crop, but now Conab decided to split it out by itself.

2019/20 Brazilian Full-Season Corn - The 2019/20 full-season corn acreage is estimated at 4.14 million hectares (10.2 million acres), which is up 1% compared to last year. The full-season corn yields are estimated at 6,344 kg/ha (97.6 bu/ac) which is up 1.5% compared to last year. Full-season corn production is estimated at 26.2 million tons or up 2.5% compared to last year. If realized, the full-season corn production would represent 26.6% of Brazil's total 2019/20 corn production.

The state of Rio Grande do Sul is expected to increase its full-season corn acreage 3.7% to 781,800 hectares (18.8% of the total), followed by Minas Gerais up 0.3% to 751,00 hectares (18.1% of the total), Parana down 6.1% to 336,800 hectares (8.1% of the total), and Santa Catarina up 0.3% to 336,000 (8.1% of the total).

2019/20 Brazilian Safrinha Corn - The 2019/20 safrinha corn acreage is estimated at 12.87 million hectares (31.7 acres), which is the same as last year's acreage. Conab always carries forward the safrinha corn acreage from the previous growing season until their February Crop Report when they will issue their first estimate of the 2019/20 growing season.

Conab did adjust the safrinha corn yield estimate. They are estimating the 2019/20 safrinha corn yield at 5,508 kg/ha (84.8 bu/ac) compared to 5,682 kg/ha last year (87.5 bu/ac). Safrinha corn production is estimated at 70.9 million tons or down 3.1% from last year's production of 73.1million tons. If realized, the safrinha corn crop would represent 72.1% of Brazil's total corn production.

Conab simply carries forward last year's safrinha corn acreage until their February Crop Report. Therefore, these are last year's safrinha corn acreages. Mato Grosso planted the most safrinha corn at 4.86 million hectares (37.7% of the total) followed by Parana at 2.24 million hectares (17.4% of the total), Mato Grosso do Sul at 1.86 million hectares (14.4% of the total), and Goias at 1.41 million hectares (10.9% of the total).

2019/20 Brazilian Third Corn Crop - As mentioned above, Conab has now divided the Brazilian corn production into three crops instead of two. The third corn crop in northeastern Brazil is estimated at 1.1 million tons or 1.1% of Brazil's total corn production. This third crop is very unreliable because it depends on the rainfall in northeastern Brazil which can be highly unpredictable.