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October 18, 2012

Start of Brazil's Soy Exports Will Depend on Soybean Planting

As we have noted several times in recent weeks, a delay in the early planting of the Brazilian soybean crop doesn't necessarily mean a lower soybean yield, but it could mean a lower volume of soybeans available for export out of Brazil early next year. If the weather cooperates during the early harvest, there may be enough soybeans in position to load a vessel by the end of January, but not enough soybeans will be in position for any significant exports until early February.

Harvesting soybeans during early January can be difficult in Brazil because that is generally the peak of the rainy season. If rains wPould delay the early soybean harvest, then the start of the soybean exports would be delayed as well. Additionally, soybean processors will be desperate to get their operations up and running again after several months of being shut down due to a lack of soybeans so they will likely out bid exporters for the first supplies of new crop soybeans.

Any delays in either planting the soybeans or harvesting the soybeans would also result in a delay in planting of the safrinha corn crop and that could have a direct impact on the safrinha corn yields. The planting window is generally considered to be January 1st to February 20th in Mato Grosso, which is the largest producing state, and January 1st to early March in Parana, which is the second leading producing state.