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October 19, 2011

WASDE Crop Estimates for South America Unchanged

The USDA made no major changes in the soybean and corn crops in Brazil and Argentina in the October WASDE estimate as compared to the September estimate. The only major difference between my estimates and those of the USDA is for the Brazilian corn crop.

  • USDA Brazil soybeans - 73.5 million tons, my estimate is 73 -74 million tons.
  • USDA Brazil corn - 61.0 million tons, my estimate is 62-63 million tons.
  • USDA Argentina soybeans - 53.0 million tons, my estimate is 53-54 million tons.
  • USDA Argentina corn - 27.5 million tons, my estimate is 26-27 million tons

The USDA is estimating the Brazilian corn crop at 61 million tons and I am estimating the crop at 62-63 million tons. I am optimistic about the corn crop in Brazil because the full-season crop is getting off to a good start and I think the safrinha corn crop will also get off to a good start as well. The soybeans in central Mato Grosso and northern Parana are being planted at a rapid pace and those are the two main areas where the safrinha corn will be planted in January and February. The most important determining factor for safrinha corn yields is when the crop gets planted and it looks like the crop will be planted on time in early 2012.