September 11, 2015
Estimates Indicate more Soybean Acreage in Brazil in 2015/16
Brazilian farmers will start planting their 2015/16 soybean crop next week when the soybean-free period expires and analysts have started to publish their thoughts on the new cropping season in Brazil.
In their second assessment of the 2015/16 growing season, the consulting agency Celeres estimated the Brazilian soybean acreage would increase 2.3% to 32.2 million hectares. They feel the nationwide soybean yield in 2015/16 will be 3,020 kg/ha (43.8 bu/ac) and the total soybean production will be 97.08 million tons. If achieved, that would be a new record large soybean production for Brazil. Conab is estimating the 2014/15 soybean crop in Brazil at 96.2 million tons, which is the previous record.
For the Brazilian corn crop, they are estimating that the full-season corn acreage will decline by 2% to 5.89 million hectares. They estimate that the full-season corn yield will be 5,920 kg/ha (91.1 bu/ac) and the full-season corn production will be 30.8 million tons or down 0.3% compared to last year.
In compensation for declining full-season corn acreage, Celeres is estimating that the safrinha corn acreage will increase by 4.4% to 9.64 million hectares and that the total safrinha corn production will be 57.02 million tons or 3.2% more than last year. Combining the two crops, they are estimating the total Brazilian corn production in 2015/16 at 87.8 million tons or a new record high production.
In their first assessment of the new growing season, INTL FCStone estimated that the soybean acreage will expand by 4.4% while the corn acreage declines by 5.6%. Using historical yields for the major producing states, they estimated that Brazil's 2015/16 soybean production would surpass 100 million tons, which of course, would be a new record high production.
They feel that the shifting of full-season corn to the safrinha crop in southern Brazil will open up additional acreage for soybeans. In the center-west region of Brazil (Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goias), the conversion of degraded pastures to row crop production will increase the soybeans acreage while in northeastern Brazil, the clearing of new land will increase the soybean acreage.