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September 16, 2020

2020 U.S. Soybean Yield Estimated at 51.0 bu/ac

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The wetter conditions over the past week and half may have helped the later maturing soybeans. I don't think the rains added any yield, but instead helped the crop maintain the potential yields. The forecast is now warmer and dryer, which should be a benefit for the crop.

The condition of the 2020 U.S. soybean crop declined 2% to 63% rated good to excellent. The soybeans are 37% dropping leaves compared to 13% last year and 31% average. With 37% of the soybeans dropping leaves, then approximately 55-60% of the soybeans are turning yellow.

The soybean harvested acreage was left unchanged in the September Crop Report compared to August. NASS indicated that they were going to collect additional harvested acreage in Iowa for the October Crop Report, but since they did not make any changes in the harvested acreage in the September Crop Report, I only expect minor changes in the October Crop Report, if any at all. Therefore, I am going to continue using a soybean harvested acreage of 83.02 million acres, which is the same as the USDA.

My soybean yield estimate was left unchanged this week at 51.0 bu/ac, which is 0.9 bu/ac lower than the USDA. The main reason why I am lower is because there was some additional dry weather after the survey was completed for the September Crop Report, which could have trimmed the yields a little more. NASS reported a relatively high pod count, but we don't know the weight of the pods or the weight of the seeds. Additionally, there may have been some damage from the frosts earlier last week that won't be accounted for until the October Crop Report.