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September 23, 2015

South American Acreage and Production Estimates

As you can see from the tables below, I am expecting the South American soybean acreage to increase 3.4% (2,000,000 hectares) and for the corn acreage to decline 2.0% (400,000 hectares). It is very early of course and these estimates will change as the growing season progresses.

At this point, my bias is for even higher soybean acreage in South America due to potentially more soybeans being planted in Brazil. For the corn crop, I have a neutral bias because the safrinha corn acreage may increase in Brazil while the corn acreage in Argentina may decline even further.

The total 2015/16 South American soybean production is estimated at 174.3 million tons or 3.6 million tons more than last year (+ 2.1%). The total South American corn production is estimated at 110.2 million tons or 3.8 million tons less than last year (- 3.3%). One thing I know for sure, these production estimates will change as the growing season progresses.

2015/16 South American Soybean Production
CountryCurrent EstimateMaximumMinimum2014/15 Production
Brazil 99.0 103.096.0 96.2
Argentina60.063.057.060.0
Paraguay 8.8 9.3 8.3 8.4
Bolivia 3.0 3.32.7 2.6
Uruguay 3.5 3.8 3.2 3.5
Total 174.3 182.4 167.2 170.7

2015/16 South American Corn Production
Country Current EstimateMaximumMinimum2014/15 Production
Brazil84.3 88.081.084.3
Argentina21.623.018.025.5
Paraguay3.13.42.73.0
Bolivia0.70.80.60.7
Uruguay0.50.60.40.5
Total110.2115.8102.7114.0

2015/16 South American Soybean and Corn Acreage
 SoybeansCorn
Country2014/152015/16 2014/152015/16
Brazil31.933.0 (+ 3.3%)15.715.7 ( 0%)
Argentina20.520.9 (+ 2.0%)3.22.8 (- 12.5%)
Paraguay3.23.4 (+ 4.0%)0.70.7 ( 0%)
Bolivia1.081.28(+ 18.0%)0.30.3 ( 0%)
Uruguay1.41.5 (+ 7.0%)0.10.1 (0%)
Total58.0860.08(+ 3.4%)20.019.6 (- 2.0%)