September 7, 2016
Conab Lowers Brazilian Corn Production 1.5 mt in Sept. Report
In their 12th and final estimate of the 2015/16 growing season in Brazil, Conab once again lowered their estimation of the Brazilian corn crop. They are now estimating the 2015/16 Brazilian corn crop at 66.97 million tons, which is down 1.50 million tons from their August estimate. The 2015/16 Brazilian corn crop is now 20.9% below the 2014/15 crop or down 17.69 million tons. In 2014/15 Brazil produced 84.67 million tons of corn.
The big decline in their September report was once again due to the declining safrinha corn crop. They are estimating the safrinha corn crop at 41.12 million tons or down 1.47 million tons from their August estimate of 42.59 million tons. The 2015/16 safrinha corn crop is now down 24.7% or 13.46 million tons compared to the 54.59 million tons produced in 2014/15.
Hot and dry conditions severely impacted the safrinha corn yields. The average safrinha corn yield in 2015/16 is now estimated at 3,904 kg/ha or 60.1 bu/ac compared to 2014/15 when the yield was 5,716 kg/ha or 88.0 bu/ac.
The full-season Brazilian corn crop is estimated at 25.85 million tons or 38.5% of Brazil's total corn crop. In 2014/15, Brazil's full season corn crop was 30.08 million tons. The safrinha corn crop is now 61.4% of Brazil's total corn crop.
The 2015/16 Brazilian soybean crop was left virtually unchanged in the September report at 95.4 million tons. Conab now estimates that the 2015/16 Brazilian soybean crop was 0.8% less than the 96.2 million tons produced in 2014/15. Conab will release their first estimates of the 2016/17 growing season in their October Crop Report.
I have been estimating the 2015/16 Brazilian corn crop at 66.0 million tons for a number of weeks, so I think it is possible that Conab may lower the Brazilian corn estimate a little more sometime in the future.