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September 7, 2017

Imea increases Estimate of Mato Grosso's Corn Production

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their sixth evaluation of the safrinha corn production, the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) increased their estimate for corn production in the state of Mato Grosso. They are now estimating the 2016/17 corn crop will be 30.45 million tons or 59% larger than the 2015/16 corn crop (an increase of 11.35 million tons).

Imea left the corn acreage unchanged from their last estimate of 4.73 million hectares, which represents an increase of 9.7% compared to the previous year. The increase in this month's estimate was the result of higher yields. The statewide safrinha corn yield is now estimated at 107.1 sacks per hectare (98.9 bu/ac), which is up 3% from their last estimate. Compared to the 2015/16 crop, the yields of the 2016/17 crop are up an incredible 45% with the total production up 59%.

The very good corn crop is being credited to two factors. The first factor is that nearly all the corn was planted within the ideal planting window which generally closes about the 20th of February. The soybeans in Mato Grosso were planted early in September and October of 2016 and harvested early in 2017, which allowed the farmers in the state ample time to plant their safrinha corn. The second favorable factor was the extension of the summer rains onto April and May when the corn was filling grain.

The record large corn crop is also leading to problems with a lack of storage space. Many grain silos in Mato Grosso are still filled with last year's soybean crop, which is forcing grain elevators to pile much of the corn outside. Piling the corn outside is not ideal, but this is the dry season in central Brazil when there is very little chance of rainfall. Those open-air piles of corn will have to be picked up by early October when the summer rainy season starts.

Imea estimates that by the end of July farmers in the state had sold approximately 73% of their 2016/17 corn production.