Aug 09, 2024
Early Look at 2024/25 South American Crop Production
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Farmers in South America will start planting some of their 2024/25 crops before the end of August, so it is time to start estimating the potential 2024/25 soybean and corn production in South America.
Note: There are discrepancies between the USDA's estimates for the 2023/24 production and local estimates including those from Conab, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, and myself, but for the purpose of this exercise, I am using the 2023/24 current estimates from the USDA. These estimates for the 2024/25 growing season are preliminary of course and they will likely change as the planting season progresses.
Brazil
- Current weather condition - Brazil is currently in the middle of their annual dry season, but this year, the dry season has been hotter and dryer-than-normal. There is no rain in the forecast for central Brazil until maybe later in August. Southern Brazil (Parana and Rio Grande do Sul) is receiving some scattered showers.
- Brazil 2024/25 soybean acreage and production - Brazil soybean acreage of 46.8 million hectares (115.5 million acres), which is up 1.0 million hectares or 2.1%. Brazil soybean production of 165.0 million tons, which is up 12 million tons or 7.8%.
- Brazil's 2024/25 first corn crop acreage and production - First corn crop acreage of 3.75 million hectares (9.26 million acres), which is down 250,000 hectares or 6%. First corn crop production of 23.0 million tons which is down 2%.
- Brazil's 2024/25 safrinha corn acreage and production - Safrinha corn acreage of 15.87 million hectares (39.19 million acres), which is down 2%. Safrinha corn production of 100.0 million tons, which is up 10%.
- Brazil's 2024/25 Total Corn Production - Brazil corn production of 125.0 million tons, which is up 3.0 million tons or 2.5%.
Argentina
- Current weather condition - Topsoil is dry especially north, west, and south. Subsoil moisture level is better especially in east-central Argentina. The forecast is a mixed bag with only limited rainfall in the forecast for eastern Argentina.
- Argentina 2024/25 soybean acreage and production - Argentina soybean acreage of 17.0 million hectares (41.9 million acres), which is up 500,000 hectares or 3%. Soybean production of 52.0 million tons, which is up 2.5 million tons or 5%.
- Argentina 2024/25 corn acreage and production - Argentina corn acreage of 6.5 million hectares (16.0 million acres), which is down 500.000 hectares or 7.1%. Argentina corn production of 50.0 million tons, which is down 2.0 million or 4%.
Paraguay
- Current weather condition - Soils in Paraguay are generally dry and the forecast is only calling for limited shower activity.
- Paraguay 2024/25 soybean acreage and production - Paraguay soybean acreage of 3.70 million hectares (9.1 million acres), which is up 140,000 hectares or 3.9%. Paraguay soybean production of 10.7 million tons, which is up 0.2 million or 1.9%.
- Paraguay 204/25 corn acreage and production - Paraguay corn acreage of 0.9 million hectares(2.2 million acres), which is up 100,000 hectares or 12.5%. Paraguay corn production of 5.2 million tons, which is up 0.4 million or 8.3%.
South American Projected 2024/25 Crop Production
| Soybeans | Corn | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | |
| Country | USDA | Soy & Corn Advisor | USDA | Soy & Corn Advisor |
| Brazil | 153.0 | 165.0 | 122.0 | 125.0 |
| Argentina | 49.5 | 52.0 | 52.0 | 50.0 |
| Paraguay | 10.5 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| Bolivia | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Uruguay | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Total | 219.8 | 234.5 | 181.1 | 182.2 |
South American soybean production to increase 14.7 million tons. South American corn production to increase 1.1 million tons. These estimates are based on the USDA's July WASDE numbers.
Note: As I mentioned earlier, since there are discrepancies between the various estimates for the 2023/24 crop production in South America, I am using the USDA's estimates for the 2023/24 crop production, which are some of the highest estimates. That is why some of the 2024/25 estimates "don't seem to add up." It is because I am using the higher estimates from the USDA. I hesitated to use the USDA numbers, but you must start someplace.