Oct 23, 2024
2024/25 Brazil Soybeans 18% Planted vs. 30% Last Year
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Brazil had planted 18% of their soybeans as of late last week compared to 30% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 10% for the week. Soybean planting continues to be accelerated in southern Brazil especially in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul and lagging in central Brazil.
Mato Grosso - Soybeans in Mato Grosso were 25% planted as of late last week compared to 60% last year and 44.4% average. This represents an advance of 16% for the week. The most advanced planting is in the mid-north and northern regions where 35% of the soybeans have been planted.
In the municipality of Lucas do Rio Verde in central Mato Grosso, rain finally arrived last week allowing farmers to start planting their soybeans. Soybeans planted up until October 25th will allow enough time to plant safrinha corn within the ideal planting window.
For farmers in the municipality who want to plant safrinha cotton, the delayed start of soybean planting has already pushed the safrinha cotton planting past the ideal window. Therefore, some farmers in the municipality have indicated that they will not plant their intended soybeans and instead go directly to planting cotton. The same thing happened last year when soybean planting was delayed.
Below is the soybean planting progress in Mato Grosso for October 18, 2024 from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea).
Parana - The state of Parana leads the way in soybean planting with 56% planted as of late last week. The soybeans are 33% germinating, 67% in vegetative development and rated 100% in good condition.
Mato Grosso do Sul - Farmers in Mato Grosso do Sul have planted 16% of the 2024/25 soybeans compared to 8.6% last year according to Aprosoja/MS. Planting is more advanced in the southern part of the state where 22% of the soybeans have been planted compared to 7.2% in central areas and 1% in northern areas. Soil moisture is adequate for planting in the southern part of the state, whereas soil moisture is still short in the northern part of the state.
The 2024/25 soybean acreage in Mato Grosso do Sul is estimated at 4.501 million hectares (11.1 million acres), which represents an increase of 6.8% compared to 2023/24. The statewide yield is estimated at 51.7 sacks per hectare (46.2 bu/ac), which is the average yield for the last five years. The 2024/25 soybean production in the state is estimated at 13.9 million tons.
Soybeans in Mato Grosso do Sul are generally planted during October and November. Historically, approximately 70% of the soybeans are planted between October 18th and November 8th. The soybean planting progress in the southern part of the state should allow farmers to plant a second crop of corn within the ideal planting window. Planting a second crop of corn in the northern part of the state is more uncertain and will depend on when the soybeans get planted.
Goias - In the municipality of Jatai in southwestern Goias, dry weather has delayed the start of the 2024/25 soybean planting. Prior to last week, it has been 170 days since the last rain and farmers were waiting to start planting until they have received at least 1-2 inches of rain.
The start of soybean planting in the municipality is two weeks behind normal and farmers are concerned that further delays may jeopardize the planting of the safrinha corn after the soybeans are harvested next January and February.
Once the soil moisture improves, everyone will start planting at the same time which may cause logistical bottlenecks during harvest. With concentrated planting, most of the soybeans will go through the critical reproductive stage at the same time which increases the risk of yield losses due to adverse weather. Additionally, most of the soybeans will be ready for harvest at the same time, which could be a problem with excessive rainfall during the peak of the rainy season.
Early estimates for the 2024/25 soybean production in Brazil are relatively close to each other. Conab is estimating the crop at 166.0 million tons (see later article) and the USDA is estimating the crop at 169.0 million tons. Conab and the USDA are estimating the soybean acreage at 47.3 million hectares (116.8 million acres). Conab is estimating the yield at 52.2 bu/ac while the USDA is estimating the yield at 53.2 bu/ac. My current estimate is 165.0 million tons.