Dec 04, 2024
2024/25 Brazil Soybeans 91% Planted, Most since 2018
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Rainfall last week in Brazil favored central and south-central Brazil while over the weekend, rainfall favored southern Brazil. The forecast for this week is calling for widespread rain across Brazil with heavy amounts in southern Brazil, which should eliminate any lingering dry conditions.
The only regional concern for dryness in Brazil was in western Parana, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, western Santa Catarina, and parts of Rio Grande do Sul. Most of those areas received welcomed rain over the weekend and there is more rain in the forecast. Most of the soybeans in the region are still in vegetative development, so the recent rains should allow the crop to develop normally.
For example, in the municipality of Campo Mourao in western Parana, the region had been 20 days without rain until last Thursday when rain fell across the region easing farmers' concerns. Many of the soybeans in the region were flowering and starting to set pods when the rain finally arrived and the region received more rain over this past weekend.
Soil moisture in Brazil has been improving week by week and the soybeans are generally rated in good condition with a high yield potential. With the improved weather in southern Brazil and continued rainfall in central Brazil, the 2024/25 Brazil soybean estimate was increased 2.0 million tons this week to 170.0 million tons.
Soybean planting in Brazil was 91% as of late last week compared to 85% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 5% for the week. This is the highest percentage planted at the end of November since 2018,
Mato Grosso - Soybeans in Mato Grosso are 100% planted compared to 99.5% last year and 99.7% average. Soybean planting was completed ahead of average in many locations in the state. Below is the soybean planting percentage in Mato Grosso for November 29, 2024 from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics Imea).
Parana - Soybeans in Parana were 99% planted, 3% germinating, 59% in vegetative development, 27% flowering, and 11% setting pods as of earlier last week according to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral). The soybeans are rated 8% average and 92% good.
Rio Grande do Sul - Soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul were 60% planted as of late last week according to Emater. In areas of the state where the soil moisture is still short, planting is hit-and-miss with some farmers waiting for more moisture before they continue planting. The state received rain over the weekend and there is more rain in the forecast. Soybeans that were planted at the end of October and early in November have a uniform stand, whereas soybean planted later in November have a less-than-ideal stand.
Emater is estimating that the state will plant 6.81 million hectares of soybeans (16.8 million acres) with a statewide yield of 3,179 kg/ha (47.3 bu/ac).
Mato Grosso do Sul - Soybean planting in Mato Grosso do Sul was 95.3% as of last week compared to 90% last year according to Aprosoja/MS. In the central and northern parts of the state, the soybeans are rated between 93% and 98% good. In far southern Mato Grosso do Sul, the soybeans are rated 10% poor, 25-40% average, and 50-70% good.
For the last several weeks, the southern part of the state has encountered hot and dry conditions. Of the 43 municipalities analyzed, 31 have registered below normal rainfall since the start of the growing season with 12 registering above normal rainfall. The weather changed over the weekend with rainfall recorded over much of the state and there is more rain in the forecast.
Aprosoja/MS estimates the state will plant 4.5 million hectares of soybeans (11.1 million acres), which represents an increase of 6.8% compared to last year. The statewide yield is estimated at 51.7 sacks per hectare (46.2 bu/ac) with a production of 13.9 million tons.
Para - In the far northern state of Para, soybean planting has been restricted to areas with center pivot irrigation due to continued dry weather. That is expected to change during the first week of December when the forecast is calling for improved chances of rainfall.
Conab will issue their December Crop Report on Thursday, December 12th. They are currently estimating the soybean crop at 166.2 million tons. Private estimates were recently released with Agroconsult estimating the crop at 171.2 million tons, Safras & Mercado estimating the crop at 171.5 million tons, Celeres is estimating the crop at 170.8 million tons, and StoneX estimating the crop at 166.2 million tons.