Dec 05, 2024

Corn Ethanol to Boost Brazil's Ethanol Production in 2024/25

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Ethanol production in Brazil in 2024/25 is expected to be 36.1 billion liters according to Conab, which represents an increase of 1.3% compared to last season. Most of the increase will be due to growth in corn ethanol production since the sugarcane crop will be lower than expected due to previously hot and dry weather.

Brazil's corn ethanol production in 2024/25 is estimated at 7.2 billion liters compared to 6.9 billion in the August forecast and up 22% compared to last season. Corn ethanol currently represents approximately 20% of Brazil's total ethanol production. Over the next four years, corn ethanol production is projected to increase another 2.5 billion liters due to new plant construction and expansion of existing facilities.

Brazil's 2024/25 sugarcane crop is estimated at 678.6 million tons, which is down 4.8% compared to last year due to hot and dry weather and wildfires in south-central Brazil. The sugarcane acreage in Brazil increased 4.3% in 2024/25 to 8.7 million hectares (21.4 million acres).

Sugarcane ethanol production is estimated at 28.8 billion liters which is down 2.8% compared to 2023/24. More sugarcane is being directed to fuel at the expanse of sugar amid a smaller crop. Brazil's sugar production is estimated at 44 million tons, down 3.7% compared to last season due to lower availability of sugarcane for milling. On the other hand, Brazil's corn production is expected to advance to 119.8 million tons, 4 million more than last year according to Conab.

Investments in the corn ethanol sector continue at a brisk pace. Petrobras recently announced an investment of 2.2 billion dollars in the biofuel sector by 2029.