Jan 14, 2025
2024/25 Argentina Soybean Estimate Lowered 1.0 mt to 52.0 Million
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The 2024/25 Argentina soybean estimate was lowered 1.0 million tons this week to 52.0 million and I have a neutral to lower bias going forward.
There were a few showers in western and southwestern Argentina over the weekend with most of the country remaining dry. Temperatures were in the mid-90s to low 100s and they are forecasted to increase this week to the upper 90s to mid-100s. The forecast for this week is for limited showers across Argentina and declining soil moisture. The hot temperatures and limited rainfall will further stress crop growth.
The southern core region of northern Buenos Aires and southern Santa Fe has been hit the hardest by the dry weather. The soybeans are entering their critical reproductive phase and they need 1 to 1.5 inches of precipitation to maintain adequate growth.
Soybeans in Argentina were 97% planted as of late last week. The one major area left to plant is far northern Argentina where the soybeans are 85-90% planted. The double crop soybeans are 95% planted and there are reports of low plant populations due to dry conditions. Approximately 50% of the earlier planted soybeans are entering the critical reproductive phase. Below is the soybean planting progress in Argentina as of January 8, 2025 from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.
Soybeans in Argentina are rated 8% poor/very poor, 43% fair, and 49% good/excellent. The good/excellent percentage is down 4% from the prior week. Soil moisture for soybeans is rated 23% short/very short and 77% favorable/optimum. The favorable/optimum percentage is down 4% from the prior week. Below is the Argentina soybean rating for January 8, 2025 from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.
2024/25 Argentina Soybean Ratings*
| Condition | Soil Moisture | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poor/V. Poor % | Good/Excellent % | Short/V Short | Favorable/Optimum | |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 0 (2) | 64 (36) | 2 (16) | 97 (84) |
| Dec 11, 2024 | 1 (4) | 65 (30) | 6 (13) | 94 (86) |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1 (3) | 66 (37) | 5 (6) | 95 (91) |
| Dec 26, 2025 | 4 (3) | 58 (45) | 12 (10) | 88 (90) |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 4 (3) | 58 (50) | 19 (6) | 81 (92) |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 8 (1) | 49 (55) | 23 (7) | 77 (90) |
*Source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange – Crop Condition & Development Stages
In the January WASDE Report, the USDA left the 2024/25 Argentina soybean estimate unchanged at 52.0 million tons.