Jan 15, 2025
2024/25 Brazil Soybean Estimate Lowered 1.0 mt to 170.0 Million
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Rainfall last week once again favored northern and east-central Brazil with heavy amounts in Mato Grosso, Goias, and Tocantins. In contrast, far southern Brazil had another dry week last week. The forecast is calling for the rain to be mainly in northern Brazil for most of this week with increasing chances of rainfall late this week and next week in southern Brazil. The rain should help the soil moisture in Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Sao Paulo. Dryness will continue across Rio Grande do Sul, however.
The soybean harvest in Brazil is 0.2% compared to 2.3% last year and 1.5% average according to Patria Agronegocios. Most of the soybeans harvested thus far are irrigated soybeans and harvesting of the dryland soybeans could start within a week if the rainfall diminishes. The delayed planting last September and October is reflected in the delayed start to harvesting.
Farmers are concerned that the nearly constant overcast skies and lack of sunshine could limit soybean yields and slow the maturation process. Harvest in central Brazil is already off to a slow start and continued wet weather could slow it even further.
Brazil's 2024/25 soybean estimate was lowered 1.0 million tons to 170.0 million and I have a neutral bias going forward. The estimate was lowered due to dry concerns in Rio Grande do Sul, parts of Parana, and southern Mato Grosso do Sul. Parts of northern Rio Grande do Sul have been dry for 20-25 days and counting.
Additionally, even though the yields in central Brazil will be good, maybe even a record, they may not be as good as farmers expect due to the constant overcast conditions and lack of sunshine. Some farmers in Mato Grosso are reporting yields below expectations for their irrigated soybeans which they attribute to the overcast conditions.
Having said that, if rainfall would return in short order to Rio Grande do Sul, which accounts for approximately 13% of Brazil's soybean production, soybean yield losses could be mitigated because most of the soybeans in the state have not reached the critical pod filling stage.
Additionally, there is a difference of opinions concerning the Brazilian soybean crop. Patria Agronegocios lowered their estimate 2.5 million tons to 167.9 million tons due to dryness in Rio Grande do Sul, northwestern Parana, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, and western Sao Paulo.
Conversely, Safras & Mercado increased their soybean estimate 2.0 million tons to 173.7 million due to good conditions, especially in Mato Grosso. They acknowledged the possibility of lower yields in parts of southern Brazil, but they felt that increased yields in central Brazil would more than make up for losses in southern Brazil. Safras & Mercado also reported that Brazilian farmers have forward contracted 35% of their anticipated 2024/25 soybean production compared to 29% last year and 39% average.
Below is the Brazil soybean harvest progress for January 10, 2025 from Patria Agronegocios.
Mato Grosso - The 2024/25 soybean harvest in Mato Grosso was 0.7% as of late last week compared to 6.4% last year and 2.3% average. This represents an advance of 0.6% for the week. Most of the soybeans harvested thus far are irrigated soybeans that were planted in early September. The delayed start to harvesting is primarily due to the delayed planting last September and early October when farmers did not want to risk planting in dry soil. The crop development is also being delayed somewhat due to wet weather, overcast conditions and a lack of sunshine.
Farmers in the state are keeping a close eye on the nearly constant wet weather. It has not delayed the start of harvesting yet because very few soybeans are ready for harvesting, but that could change within two weeks when early planted dryland soybeans start to mature. A few farmers who have harvested irrigated soybeans in the state are reporting yields below expectations which they attribute to overcast skies and a lack of sunshine.
Below is the soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso for January 10, 2025 from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea).
Mato Grosso do Sul - Southern Mato Grosso do Sul has been dry for several weeks and now the temperatures have heated up to the low 100's in some locations. Moisture stress is widespread and potential soybean yields have already been impacted.
USDA and Conab - In the January WASDE Report, the USDA left the 2024/25 Brazil soybean estimate unchanged at 169.0 million tons. In the January Crop Report, Conab estimated the Brazil soybean crop at 166.3 million tons, which is up slightly from their December estimate.