Feb 13, 2025
2024/25 Brazil Soybeans 17% Harvested vs. 21% Average
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The production estimate was increased this week due to surprising harvest progress in central Brazil last week and the anticipation of another good harvest week this week. The biggest concern was the slow harvest progress in Mato Gross, but with a good week of harvesting this week, they may catch up to the average pace. Yields in Mato Grosso are coming out pretty well while they are excellent in neighboring Goias.
Several consulting firms including Celeres, StoneX, AgRural, Hedgepoint, Safras & Mercado, Agroconsult, and AgResource are forecasting Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to top 170 million tons. Conab will issue their February Crop Report on Thursday of this week. In their January report, they estimated the crop at 166.3 million tons.
Rainfall over the weekend favored northern areas with the heaviest amounts in northwestern Mato Grosso. Far southern Brazil remained mostly dry. The forecast is calling for more showers in Mato Grosso and Goias with scattered showers possible in southern Brazil. Rainfall is expected to increase in southern Brazil during the 6-10-day period.
Soybeans in Brazil were 16.7% harvested as of late last week compared to 23.8% last year and 21.4% average according to Patria Agronegocious. This represents an advance of 6.4% for the week. Soybean harvesting in Mato Grosso has caught up with Parana and both states are now 28% harvested. With less rain in the forecast and more soybeans maturing, the harvest pace is expected to accelerate over the next 1-2 weeks.
The soybean production estimate was increased 1.0 million tons this week to 171.0 million due to good harvest progress last week in Mato Grosso and central Brazil and the potential for good progress again this week. With somewhat dryer weather in the forecast, I am now less concerned about wet weather disrupting the harvest and resulting in quality issues. Early yields are good in Mato Grosso and excellent in Goias. Early yields from southern Brazil are disappointing.
Mato Grosso - Farmers in Mato Grosso made good progress harvesting soybeans last week. Soybeans in Mato Grosso were 28.5% harvested as of late last week compared to 51.5% last year and 39.5% average according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). This represents an advance of 16.3% for the week. The most advanced harvest is in the mid-north region where the soybeans are 41% harvested, which represents an advance of 24.7% for the week.
After a slow start to planting, abundant rains during the growing season benefited plant development. Continued wet weather slowed the early harvest, but the harvest pace picked up last week and it is expected to be at least that fast again this week. There are some minor concerns about seed quality, but with less rain in the forecast, it may only remain a minor issue.
Imea increased their production estimate for Mato Grosso last week. They estimated the planted acreage at 12.66 million hectares (31.2 million acres), which is up 1.47%. The statewide yield is estimated at 62.07 sacks per hectare (55.4 bu/ac), which is up 19% from last year and the second highest on record. The state's soybean production is estimated at 47.15 million tons, which is up 20.7% compared to 2023/24. Below is the soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso for February 7, 2025 from Imea.
Soybeans are 22.1% harvested in Mato Grosso do Sul, and 14.1% harvested in Goias. Harvesting in both states is expected to accelerate this week with dryer weather in the forecast.
Rio Grande do Sul - Hot and dry conditions continue to impact the soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul especially in the western and central parts of the state where they have received below normal rainfall since November. Temperatures have also been above 40°C (104°F) in many locations with the hottest temperature of 43.8°C (111°F) on February 4th in the city of Quarai on the border with Uruguay.
The soybean condition is highly variable depending on location from satisfactory in the eastern part of the state to areas of total loss in parts of western Rio Grande do Sul. Losses generally range from 5% to 50% depending on location.
Parana - Soybeans in Parana were 28% harvested as of earlier last week compared to 25% last year. Yields in the state are variable and the recent rains helped the latest planted soybeans which only represents a small part of the total crop. In the municipality of Goioere in western Parana, yields are averaging 50 sacks per hectare (44.7 bu/ac) with a range of 20 to 70 sacks per hectare (18 to 62.5 bu/ac), which is down about 25% from initial expectations. Some poor seed quality is being reported in northern Parana near the city of Londrina.