Feb 19, 2025
2024/25 Brazil Corn Estimate Unchanged at 123.0 Million Tons
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Safrinha corn planting in Brazil was 36% as of late last week compared to 59% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 16% for the week. The biggest advance was in Mato Grosso, where the safrinha corn is now 45% planted. With a somewhat dryer forecast for this week, Brazilian farmers should make good progress harvesting their soybeans and planting safrinha corn.
Some of the safrinha corn will be planted outside the ideal window, but the level of concern is less now compared to several weeks ago. In their first on-the-ground assessment of the safrinha corn crop, Conab estimated the 2024/25 Brazil corn production at 122.0 million tons (see later article).
The first corn crop in Brazil is 29% harvested compared to 34% last year. This represents an advance of 11% for the week.
Mato Grosso - Last week as a big week for safrinha corn planting in Mato Grosso. The safrinha corn was 44.9% planted as of late last week compared to 65.1% last year and 53.5% average. This represents an advance of 21.4% for the week, which is the same as the soybean harvest advancement for the week.
Farmers should make excellent planting progress again this week, probably surpassing the average pace. There will be some corn planted after the ideal window closes, but it should be less than what was feared several weeks ago. I may have to "eat my words" in a couple of weeks, but it looks to me that the rainy season has peaked and the rainfall will start to diminish in central Brazil. If that turns out to be the case, the next concern for the safrinha corn might be a lack of moisture in March and April, but that is pure speculation on my part.
Farmers in Mato Grosso also made good progress planting their safrinha cotton which is now 95.6% planted compared to 94.9% average.
Below is the safrinha corn planting pace in Mato Grosso for February 14, 2025 from Imea.
Parana - Safrinha corn in Parana was 46% planted as of earlier last week with 40% germinating, 60% in vegetative development, and rated 100% in good condition according to Deral. The first corn crop in Parana was 21% harvested as of earlier last week.
Rio Grande do Sul - The corn development in Rio Grande do Sul has been accelerated by high temperatures and the crop is now 54% harvested according to Emater. Yields of the earliest planted corn are positive while the later planted corn was negatively impacted by high temperatures during pollination and early grain filling. Additionally, high nighttime temperatures negatively impacted grain filling.
The state received some much-needed rainfall over the weekend, but the damage to the corn crop had already been done. Some farmers planted their corn in January and they are reporting elevated levels of corn leafhoppers.