Mar 05, 2025
2024/25 Brazil Corn Estimate Unchanged at 123.0 Million Tons
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Safrinha corn in Brazil was 80% planted as of late last week compared to 86% last year. This represents an advance of 16% for the week. The optimum planting window is now closed so 20% of the safrinha corn will be planted later than desired.
Soil moisture is generally good for the early safrinha corn in the northern production area (Mato Grosso, Goias, northern Mato Grosso do Sul, Tocantins, and Maranhao), which represents about 65% of the safrinha acreage. That is not the case in the southern production area (Parana, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, and Minas Gerais), which represents about 35% of the safrinha acreage. The southern areas have been drying out for several weeks and they need rain, but there is little rain in the forecast with above normal temperatures. The same thing happened last year and yields in the southern area ended up being disappointing.
Mato Grosso - Farmers in Mato Grosso had planted 85% of their safrinha corn as of late last week compared to 90% last year and 84% average. This represents an advance of 17.8% for the week. The goal is to reach 85% planted by March 1st and that was achieved this year. Given the rapid pace of the soybean harvest and the forecast, the safrinha planting should be nearing completion by the end of this week. Below is the safrinha planting pace in Mato Grosso for February 28, 2025 from Imea.
Parana - As of last week, farmers in Parana had planted approximately 65% of the projected 2.6 million hectares of safrinha corn. The weather has collaborated thus far with planting and the crop is estimated at 15.9 million tons. The weather has turned dryer in southern Brazil and the safrinha corn in Parana will need rain for vegetative development.
The first corn crop is being harvested with good yields being reported of 10,400 kg/ha. The first crop is expected to produce 2.8 million tons, which is 11% more than last year even though the acreage is down 9%.
Rio Grande do Sul - Corn in Rio Grande do Sul was 64% harvested as of last week according to Emater. Yields are satisfactory with a statewide yield estimated at 7,116 kg/ha (113 bu/ac). Most of the corn got ahead of the hot and dry weather in January and February. Corn that was planted in November and mid-December (approximately 14% of the total area) was impacted the most because it was pollinating under adverse conditions.