Mar 18, 2025
2024/25 Argentina Soy Estimate Unchanged at 48.0 Million Tons
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Mostly dry weather prevailed across Argentina over the weekend and this week should be mostly dry as well. Rainfall should increase in the 6-10 period in western and northwestern Argentina.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is estimating the soybean crop at 49.6 million tons, whereas the Rosario Exchange is estimating the crop at 44.5 million tons. In the March WASDE report, the USDA is estimating the crop at 49.0 million tons. The condition of the soybean crop has improved for the fourth week in a row, and I decided to leave the estimate unchanged at 48.0 million tons.
Soybeans are 61% filling pods and 12% maturing and the early harvest should start this week. In the northern production areas, the soybeans are suffering from heat and moisture stress, whereas in central areas, there have been reports of localized flooding. Rainfall in February and early March has favored pod filling of the early planted soybeans and the soybean condition has improved for four weeks in a row.
Soybeans in Argentina were rated 26% poor/very poor, 42% fair, and 32% good/excellent as of late last week. The good/excellent percentage is up 3% compared to the prior week. This marks the fourth week in a row that the soybean condition has improved. Soil moisture for the corn is rated 17% short/very short, 80% favorable/optimum, and 3% saturated. The favorable/optimum percentage is up 3% compared to the prior week. Below is the soybean condition rating in Argentina for March 12, 2025 from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.
2024/25 Argentina Soybean Ratings*
| Condition | Soil Moisture | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poor/V. Poor % | Good/Excellent % | Short/V Short | Favorable/Optimum | |
| Feb 5, 2025 | 32 (18) | 17 (31) | 36 (28) | 64 (72) |
| Feb 12, 2025 | 36 (17) | 15 (31) | 38 (32) | 62 (58) |
| Feb 19, 2025 | 34 (18) | 17 (30) | 33 (25) | 67 (75) |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 33 (17) | 24 (30) | 31 (27) | 69 (73) |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 23 (30) | 29 (31) | 23 (22) | 77 (78) |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 26 (16) | 32 (33) | 17 (21) | 80 (78) |
*Source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange – Crop Condition & Development Stages