Mar 19, 2025
2024/25 Brazil Safrinha Corn 97% Planted; Window Now Closed
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Dry weather had impacted the southern safrinha corn, but rainfall last week benefited the corn in the states of Parana, Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goias. There is more rain in the forecast for the southern safrinha corn which should help stabilize the crop.
The safrinha corn in Brazil was 97% planted as of late last week according to AgRural. The planting window is now essentially closed. In their March Crop Report, Conab lowered the safrinha corn acreage by 90,000 hectares to 16.74 million hectares (41.3 million acres). In the dryer areas of Brazil, some farmers are switching some of their intended safrinha corn to grain sorghum or sesame. Usually, Conab increases the safrinha corn acreage as the season progresses, so it is a bit unusual that they reduced the acreage.
In their March report, Conab increased the 2024/25 Brazil corn estimate 750,000 tons to 122.76 million tons based mainly on a larger first corn crop. In the March WASDE report, the USDA left the Brazil corn estimate unchanged at 126.0 million tons.
Dryness in south-central Brazil continues to be a concern for the southern safrinha corn in the states of Parana, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, and Minas Gerais. This area received some rain last week and they are going to need all the rainfall they can get during the month of March. If any rain event disappoints, the Brazilian corn estimate could move lower. Therefore, I left the Brazil corn estimate unchanged at 123.0 million tons with a neutral bias for the time being.
Mato Grosso - The safrinha corn in Mato Grosso was 99.4% planted as of late last week compared to 99.4% last year and 96.9% average according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea).
Farmers in the state have forward contracted 37.5% of their anticipated 2024/25 safrinha corn production, which is up 6.8% from the previous month. For the 2023/24 crop, farmers have sold 98% of their production for an average price of R$ 60.40 per sack (approximately $4.75 per bushel) during February. Below is the safrinha corn planting progress in Mato Grosso for March 14, 2025 from Imea.
Parana - The Department of Rural Economics (Deral) reported that farmers in Parana had planted 82% of their safrinha corn. The corn was 15% germinating, 81% in vegetative development, 4% pollinating, and rated 8% average and 92% good. Planting is slower than anticipated due to lack of rainfall.
Hot and dry conditions are impacting the crop and some of the corn may need to be replanted. It is too early to quantify potential losses, but farmers are concerned that some of the corn may not be able to fully recover even if rain returns.