Mar 27, 2025
Initial Estimates for the 2025 U.S. Growing Season
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The 2025 U.S. planting season is rapidly approaching and on March 31st, the USDA will release their Planting Intensions Report. Below are my initial estimates for the 2025 U.S. crops.
Weather - The weather at the end of March looks promising for an early start to spring planting in the Midwest. Snowfall across much of the Midwest this winter has been below normal resulting in very little snowpack to melt. Outside of a few cold spells, temperatures have been above normal.
The most recent Drought Monitor indicated below normal soil moisture in most of the western Midwest including Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota, parts of North Dakota, and Nebraska. The Drought Monitor indicated that 53% of the intended corn acres and 40% of the intended soybean acres are being affected by drought. It is worse for sunflowers at 74% and durum wheat at 60%.
A dry spring allows for early field work and rapid planting progress, which generally favors higher yields especially for corn. The problem with a dry spring is that the subsoil moisture may not be recharged before the hotter summer temperatures arrive, thus exposing the crops to potential moisture deficits. Generally, a warm and dry April will favor additional corn acres, whereas a cold and wet April, would favor fewer corn acres.
Corn acreage and yield - At this point, I would estimate the 2025 U.S. corn acreage at 94.5 million acres vs. the 90.6 million planted in 2024. If the weather during April favors early and rapid planting, farmers might plant 95.0+ million corn acres. The initial 2025 U.S. corn yield is estimated at 180.0 bu/ac, which is a bushel below the USDA. The corn yield for the last three years averaged 176.6 bu/ac (173.4 bu/ac in 2022, 177.3 bu/ac in 2023, 179.3 bu/ac in 2024), The USDA is estimating the 2024 U.S. corn yield at 181.0 bu/ac. A record yield of 181.0 bu/ac or higher is possible of course, but I think that is optimistic at this point.
Soybean acreage and yield - The 2025 soybean acreage is estimated at 84.0 million acres vs. 87.1 million planted in 2024. The final soybean acreage will be determined in part by how fast or how slow the corn gets planted. The initial 2025 U.S. soybean yield is estimated at 51.5 bu/ac which is a bushel below the USDA. The most important time for pod filling is from late July through early September, so the weather during that period will be the final determining factor for the soybean yield.