Dec 10, 2025
2025/26 Brazil Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 176.0 Million Tons
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Rainfall over the weekend in Brazil favored northern and west central regions with heaviest amounts in Mato Grosso, Tocantins, northern Goias, western Bahia, and northern Minas Gerais. Hot and dry weather prevailed over the weekend in Rio Grande do Sul. Rainfall should be widespread across Brazil this week with heaviest amounts in southern Brazil.
Soybean planting in Brazil is in the low 90% range. This is a little slower than last year. Most of the soybeans left to plant are in the state of Rio Grande do Sul where it has been relatively dry recently. Rio Grande do Sul usually produces approximately 11-12% of Brazil's soybeans.
Most private analysts in Brazil have trimmed their 2025/26 soybean estimates due to the irregular rainfall during October and November. The estimates today range from the low 170's to the upper 170's million tons. The soybean estimate was left unchanged this week at 176.0 million tons with a neutral to lower bias.
Rio Grande do Sul - Soybean planting in Rio Grande do Sul was 74% as of late last week compared to an average of 81% according to Emater. A sharp reduction of rainfall during the second half of November resulted in insufficient moisture for soybean planting. The forecast is calling for improved chances of rainfall across the state this week.
Soybeans planted in the state after November 15th have less uniform emergence and slower initial development. Emater is estimating the 2025/26 soybean production in the state at 22,4 million tons, a growth of 34.9% from the previous season affected by dry weather. If verified, the state will be the second largest soybean producer after Mato Grosso with approximately 12% of Brazil's soybean production.
Mato Grosso - The soybeans in Mato Grosso are now 100% planted. After a fast start, planting slowed due to irregular rainfall. Approximately, the last 25% of soybeans planted in the state were planted slower than average.
Parana - Soybeans in Parana were 99% planted as of earlier last week with 3% germinating, 56% in vegetative development, 31% flowering, 10% setting pods and rated 1% poor, 7% average, and 92% good. The first soybeans planted in Parana during the first week of September should be ready to start harvesting in several weeks.
Conab will issue their December Crop Report on Thursday, December 11, 2025.