Dec 30, 2025
Brazil Soybean Estimate Increased 1.0 mt to 178.0 Million Tons
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The 2025/26 Brazil soybean estimate was increased 1.0 million tons this week to 178.0 million with a neutral to higher bias.
The increased production estimate is the result of good early yield reports out of Mato Grosso and improved rainfall in the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul, which will likely be the second largest soybean producing state in Brazil this year after Mato Grosso.
Brazil weather - Rain favored north central and southern growing areas in Brazil over the weekend. The heaviest rainfall occurred in west central Mato Grosso, eastern Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul. Rain is expected to increase across central and southern areas this week. Rain should then increase significantly across northern areas next week.
Brazil soybean harvest - The soybean harvest has started in isolated areas of western Parana and western and central areas of Mato Grosso. Nationwide, less than 1% of the soybeans have been harvested and the harvest pace will accelerate in early January. The soybeans currently being harvested are early maturing varieties that were planted in early September. These soybeans will be followed by a second crop of cotton or corn in Mato Grosso and a second crop of corn in Parana.
Mato Grosso - The early soybean harvest in Mato Grosso is concentrated in irrigated areas and yields are reported to be good with good quality and grain weight. After irregular rain during October and November, the weather has improved during December, but the final yield will depend on the weather during January, February and in some later areas, the first half of March.
Rio Grande do Sul - Rio Grande do Sul is one of the states that plants soybeans last in Brazil. As of last Thursday, 92% of the soybeans had been planted and 98% are in vegetative development according to Emater. The soybeans are rated from satisfactory to very good. Despite specific periods of water restrictions during the second half of November, especially in areas planted earlier, subsequent rains allowed the resumption of vegetative growth.
The state continues to receive widespread rains despite the fact that a weak La Nina is present in the eastern Pacific Ocean. A La Nina usually results in dryer-than-normal conditions in southern Brazil, but that has not happened this year. In fact, at the current pace, Rio Grande do Sul could end up being the second largest soybean producing state in Brazil after Mato Grosso and ahead of Parana. Parts of northwestern Rio Grande do Sul received too much rain earlier last week resulting in localized flooding.
Emater estimates the average statewide yield at 3,180 kg/ha (47.3 bu/ac), which would represent an increase compared to the 2,009 kg/ha (29.9 bu/ac) of the past crop, affected by dry weather. Soybean acreage in the state is estimated at 6.74 million hectares (16.6 million acres). The 2025/26 soybean harvest in the state could hit 21.44 million tons, an increase of 57% compared to last year.