May 27, 2026
Biofuels Future Driving Factor for Soy and Corn Demand in Brazil.
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
For the last 20 years, grain exports to China were the driving force behind crop growth in Brazil, but going forward, the production of biofuels may become the driving factor. The key to crop projections for the next five years in Brazil will be production of traditional biofuels with higher blends of biodiesel and ethanol in fossil fuels as well as production of advanced biofuels such as aviation fuel (SAF) and green diesel (HVO). That is according to Fabio Meneghin, chief analyst of the consulting firm Veeries Agribusiness Analytics, a data science and market intelligence service for the agricultural sector.
Veeries estimated that the annual growth of demand for soybeans by 2031 would be 3.5%, with boost mainly from biodiesel. Without biofuel, the growth would be 2.1%. For corn, the demand would grow 5.8% in the same period, considering feed consumption, but mainly for the production of ethanol. Without biofuel, the growth would be 2.6%.
According to Veeries, the soybean acreage in Brazil will grow 2.4% per year to 54.6 million hectares within five years with production going from the current 186 million tons to 215 million. In the case of corn, planted area would increase by 3.9% per year to 27 million hectares in 2031, with production increasing from 140 million in 2026 to 189 million in 2031.
These estimates stand in stark contrast to the pessimistic view of acreage and production for the 2026/27 crops in Brazil due to the situation in the Middle East. At some point, the war in Iran will be resolved, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, and the traditional supply and demand scenario will reemerge.