May 28, 2026
Soybean Acreage Growth in Brazil for 2026/27 Lowest in Decades
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Brazilian farmers are facing a very challenging 2026/27 growing season. In addition to low commodity prices, they must deal with high fertilizer prices, high fuel prices, high interest rates on production loans or even a lack of available credit due to past indebtedness. The combined impact will result in the lowest growth in soybean acreage in the last two decades. The last time Brazil reduced soybean acreage was about 20 years ago when there was a combination of high interest rates, falling dollar and a U.S. super crop.
2026/27 Brazil soybean acreage up 1.0% - The soybean acreage growth in Brazil in 2026/27 is estimated at 1.0% or approximately 500,000 hectares to 49.2 million (121.5 million acres). There is a downside risk to this estimate given the situation in the Middle East. As a comparison, in 2025/26, the Brazilian soybean acreage expanded 2.9% or 1.37 million hectares to 48.7 million hectares.
Part of the soybean expansion may come from switching first crop corn in southern Brazil to soybeans instead. The remainder of the increase may come from the conversion of degraded pastures to row crops or bringing virgin land into production. That is hard to do in a normal year due to the large amounts of fertilizers and agricultural limestone that must be applied to increase the low native fertility. It would be even harder to do with high fertilizer prices and low commodity prices.
2026/27 Brazil soybean production 180.0 mt - The 2026/27 Bazil soybean production is estimated at 180.0 million tons, unchanged from 2025/26. Even if the soybean acreage increases slightly, many farmers will try to reduce costs by using bin-run soybeans instead of certified seed, reduce plant populations for fear of El Nino dryness (see later comments), apply less fertilizers, and economize on chemical applications. Collectively, these measures could limit the yield potential and result in a lower nationwide yield compared to 2025/26.
2026/27 Brazil corn acreage unchanged - Brazil's 2026/27 corn acreage is unchanged at 22.5 million hectares (55.5 million acres). The first-crop corn acreage may decline 5% or approximately 200,000 hectares while the safrinha corn acreage may increase 1% or approximately 200,000. Brazil's first corn crop is more at risk from the worldwide fertilizer situation because planting will start in mid to late August if conditions permit. Safrinha corn planting will occur primarily in January and February and maybe the fertilizer situation will improve by then. In 2025/26 the Brazilian corn acreage expanded by 3.3% to 22.5 million hectares
2026/27 Brazil corn production 135.0 mt - Brazil's 2026/27 corn production put at 135.0 million tons or down approximately 5 million from 2025/26. Estimating corn production in Brazil in 2026/27 is tricky. Farmers may reduce plant populations in fear of dryness from El Nino, and they may reduce fertilizer applications to save money. Both of those could limit corn yields. Additionally, if El Nino dryness delays soybean planting in central Brazil, safrinha corn planting would be delayed, increasing the risk of lower corn yields.