May 29, 2026
El Nino Potential Impact on 2026/27 Brazilian and Argentine Crops
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
A potentially strong El Nino could have a dramatic impact on Brazil's 2026/27 soybean and corn production. Generally, a strong El Nino results in above normal rainfall in far southern Brazil, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, and below normal rainfall in central and northeastern Brazil.
Dryer weather in central Brazil during September-October-November could delay soybean planting as well as emergence resulting in reduced plant populations. Even with delayed planting, soybean yields in Brazil could still be satisfactory if the weather cooperates during the growing season. Delayed soybean planting could have a much larger impact on safrinha corn production.
If soybeans are planted late, then safrinha corn would be planted late, increasing the risk of lower acreage and lower yields.
Brazilian farmers will start planting their first corn crop in southern Brazil by mid to late August if the weather cooperates and soybean planting will start in early to mid-September. The worldwide fertilizer situation could change between now and then, but the clock is ticking on getting fertilizers imported into Brazil and delivered into the countryside, especially for the first corn crop.
In Argentina, a strong El Nino usually results in above normal rainfall especially in central and northern parts of the country. The terrain is very flat, and Argentine soils have a high-water holding capacity. Localized flooding is common during periods of excessive rain, and it takes a long time for the water to recede.
Planting in Argentina proceeds over a five-month period. Farmers plant their early corn in September and October with the later corn planted in December and January. Soybeans in Argentina are planted in November-December-January. Heavy rain or localized flooding may keep farmers out of the field for extended periods of time, but the good news is that the planting window is very wide.