Jun 11, 2026
Past Impact of El Nino on Brazilian Soybean Production
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
With an El Nino developing in the Pacific Ocean, farmers in Brazil have another thing to worry about in addition to high input costs and limited and expensive credit. An El Nino generally results above normal precipitation in southern Brazil and below normal precipitation in central and northern Brazil.
During the El Nino years of 1982/83 and 1991/92, the configuration of soybean production in Brazil was much different than the present day, so comparisons with the current potential El Nino are imprecise. In those years, soybean production was just emerging in central and northern Brazil with most of the production was still concentrated in southern Brazil.
The El Nino year of 2015/16 is the most similar to the current standard in terms of distribution of soybean production. During the El Nino ten years ago, the North region registered a decline of 19% in productivity, the Northeast declined 35%, the Center-West declined 2.8%, while the south registered an increase of 15% and the Southeast registered an increase of 8%.
Metrologists in Brazil are expecting a similar weather pattern with the current El Nino, wetter in the south and dryer in the north, but maybe more intense due to climate change. I am currently expecting the 2026/27 soybean acreage to increase 1% or 500,000 hectares with a nationwide yield below that of 2025/26 resulting in a production of 180.0 million tons, unchanged from 2025/26.