Jun 16, 2026
El Nino's Opposite Impact on Southern and Northern Brazil
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed last week the development of El Nino and the possibility that it could be one of the strongest in recent memory. With a strong El Nino, Brazil could be divided between excess and a shortage of rain.
While center-south states are expected to receive above-average rainfall in the coming months, areas of North, Northeast, and part of the Midwest could face prolonged periods of drought and elevated temperatures.
According to metrologists Estael Sias, Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo and the three southern states could have above rainfall during July. The state of Parana tends to be the first to feel the most intense effects of El Nino with above average rainfall. This wetter pattern is expected to persist during August, September, and October. In fact, the state of Parana has experienced above average rainfall for several months.
Excess moisture during winter and spring could hinder spring planting and favor the emergence of fungal diseases. High humidity favors diseases such as gibberella, which affects wheat, barley, oats, and rye. Wheat is especially vulnerable to excess rainfall during ripening.
While the south is worried about excess rainfall, the scenario is opposite in Northern and Northeastern Brazil where the influence of El Nino tends to significantly reduce rainfall in critical regions of northern Brazil. The shortage of rain should be accompanied by above-average temperatures. Crops such as soybeans and corn may face difficulties mainly during planting and early stages of development.
Farmers are being advised to plant soybeans of different maturities and avoid planting soybeans during a concentrated timeframe. Areas of northern Brazil including parts of Mato Grosso, may also face below average rainfall during critical reproductive periods for soybeans when the plant is more sensitive to water stress.