Aug 10, 2026
Brazil Facing Record Wheat Imports of 9 Million Tons in 2026
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Wheat is the main crop for which Brazil is not self-sufficient. Reduced wheat acreage coupled with high production costs and adverse weather conditions could result in Brazil importing a record amount of wheat, as high as 9 million tons.
According to the analysist at Safras & Mercado, Elcio Bento, the Brazilian wheat crop at the start of the year was estimated at 7.2 million tons, but it has been revised down to 5.9 million due to a combination of lower planted acreage and drought in the Cerrado region of central Brazil.
Rio Grande do Sul is the largest wheat producing state in Brazil and the 2026 wheat acreage in the state declined 24% to 879,200 hectares (2.17 million acres). Wheat production in the state is estimated at 2.57 million tons, down 28% compared to last year. Wheat acreage in Parana, which is the second largest producing state in Brazil, fell 13.5% to 855,000 hectares (2.11 million acres). Reduced use of nitrogen fertilizer due to higher costs is expected to reduce yields by 9.5% resulting in a 21% drop in production to 2.14 million tons. Rio Grande do Sul and Parana produce approximately 80% of Brazil's wheat.
The main challenge for Brazilian wheat production is excessive moisture during crop maturation and harvesting. The strengthening El Nino has the potential to negatively impact Brazil's wheat production more than usual due to excessive rainfall in southern Brazil.
Excess moisture during maturation and harvesting can result in increased disease pressure, lower yields, and poor-quality grain. El Nino is expected to increase the frequency of storms and result in above average rainfall volumes during the time the wheat is maturing and being harvested.
Excess water can result in a number of negative impacts during the wheat cycle. High humidity and frequent storms favor the occurrence of fungal diseases, in addition to reduced solar radiation. Wheat harvesting in southern Brazil is often delayed by high grain moisture resulting in poor quality wheat. It is common in Brazil for millers to import high quality wheat from Argentina while using poor quality domestic wheat for animal rations. Domestic wheat production in 2026 will equate to approximately 40% of Brazil's domestic consumption.