Aug 05, 2026
U.S. Corn Yield Unchanged at 181.0 bu/ac
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The 2026 U.S. corn yield is unchanged this week to 181.0 bu/ac with a neutral to lower bias. Corn is now rated 61% good to excellent, down 2% from last week.
A slow-moving cut-off low pressure system moved across the Midwest late last week and over the weekend bringing widespread showers to most regions of the central Corn Belt. Rainfall amounts were heaviest from southern Minnesota southeastward through northern Illinois central Indiana and western Ohio. That comes on the heels of rain earlier last week in north-central and western regions. Hot temperatures earlier last week gave way to a cool down by the end of the week and over the weekend.
The forecast for this week looks favorable for crop development with increased soil moisture and cooler temperatures. Areas that missed out on the weekend rain include North and South Dakota and northwestern Iowa. These conditions should favor pollination, which stands at 90% nationwide. As of Sunday, 93% of the corn in Minnesota was pollinating, 93% in Iowa, 89% in Nebraska, 95% in South Dakota, and 83% in North Dakota.
Cool and wet weather in late July and early August ensures favorable conditions for a minimum of 1-2 weeks, which gets us to mid-August. Therefore, the corn yield estimate was left unchanged this week at 181.0 bu/ac with a neutral to slightly lower bias. Any significant downside, risk to the U.S. corn crop has probably been reduced by the favorable start to the August weather, but that will depend on future weather developments.
Some areas of the western Corn Belt missed out on the rain, especially North Dakota, so more rain is still needed in those areas, but overall, this is a good start to August. The latest Drought Monitor placed 29% of the corn and 28% of the soybeans in drought, but those numbers could moderate in the next Drought Monitor on Thursday.
As indicated in last week's report, the five western states equate to 44.8% of the U.S. corn acreage with Iowa at (13.6%), Nebraska (11.0%), Minnesota (8.9%), South Dakota (6.6%), and North Dakota (4.7%). If the corn yield in those five states declined by an average of 5%, it would equate to a 4 bushel decline nationwide. A 10% reduction would equate to an 8 bushel decline nationwide.
The August Crop Production Report and the August WASDE report will be released on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. The August Crop Production Report does not contain physical in-field sample counts. Instead, it relies on the Agricultural Yield Survey (farmer-reported expectations), administrative data, and satellite imagery. Actual physical in-field sample measurements—known as the Objective Yield Survey—begin appearing in the September, October, and November reports.
I have adopted the USDA's corn acreage, but it is possible that the harvested acreage may end up slightly lower than the current estimate from the USDA.