Aug 11, 2026
Inmet Warning of Extreme Weather in Brazil Resulting from El Nino
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The Brazilian National Weather Service (Inmet) last week issued their second bulletin concerning El Nino citing a 100% probability that El Nino will remain active until the beginning of 2027. The phenonium is expected to gain strength throughout the second half of this year and could reach the "very strong" intensity category between the Brazilian spring and early summer. With this scenario, there is an increased possibility of extreme weather events in different regions of Brazil, especially in the South and the Amazon.
More intense rains in southern Brazil - Southern Brazil remains the most sensitive to the effects of El Nino. The bulletin points to a trend of above-average precipitation, favoring the occurrence of storms, floods, landsides, and rapid elevation of river levels.
According to Inmet, the rainfall recorded in Rio Grande do Sul during July and early August already reflects this pattern. More rain is forecasted for the remainder of August, increasing the chance of flooding in already saturated areas.
Amazon may have longer drought - In the Amazon region, El Nino tends to reduce rainfall volume, raise temperatures, and delay the onset of the summer rainy season. This scenario favors the continuation of drought, decreases the availability of water, intensifies the dryness of vegetation, and increases the potential for forest fires. The bulletin also highlights the trend of a gradual fall in the levels of the Amazon rivers due to drought in different sub-basins.
Impact on agriculture - The occurrence of heavy rain in southern Brazil has the potential to negatively impact the ripening winter wheat crop, delay spring planting, and increase losses from localized flooding and increased disease pressure.
In northern Brazil, hot and dry conditions could also delay spring planting, imped crop development, and delay the planting of safrinha corn and cotton. Low water levels on the southern tributaries of the Amazon River could disrupt the movement of corn and soybeans to the "Northern Arc" of ports on the Amazon River.