May 25, 2010
A Transition to La Nina Would be Important to U.S. Crops
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
One of the more important aspects of this summer's weather will be if we transition into a La Nina and when that transition might occur. A La Nina generally results in dryer than normal conditions in the Corn Belt. If we transition into a La Nina before the end of June and the weather does turn dryer than normal, then there could be enough time to adversely affect both the corn and the soybean crop. If the transition doesn't occur until August or later, then there would probably not be much of an impact on this year's crops.
The 2010 corn crop will certainly pollinate earlier than it did for the last couple of years. The earliest planted corn could be pollinating by the end of June and the latest planted corn should be pollinating by the first half of July. Therefore, in order to impact pollination, a transition to dryer weather would need to occur quite early in the growing season, probably by the end of June or early July. If the transition is delayed until August or later, it could impact the soybean crop, but the corn crop would probably escape most of the potential damage.
The U.S. crops may or may not be impacted by a transition to La Nina, but if the transition occurs during June, July, or August, it could have a big impact on the 2010-11 South American growing season. La Nina conditions generally results in dryer than normal weather in Brazil and Argentina. If those conditions are in place prior to the start of planting in South America, there could be a significant impact on the 2010-11 crop production.