Jan 31, 2013
Forecasted Rains Will be Critical for Soybeans in Southern Brazil
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The soybean crop in southern Brazil is reaching a critical junction as far as the yield potential is concerned. In the state of Rio Grande do Sul, the last good rain in the north-central part of the state was January 3rd and since then the soils have dried out considerably. The temperatures this week have been in the upper 90s to low 100s and the relative humidity has been very low. This has resulted in a rapid drying out of the soil moisture. After the weekend rain event, dry weather is forecasted to return to the state next week. The soybean crop is still generally in vegetative development with about 10% of the crop filling pods. Therefore, the most critical time for the soybean crop (pod filling) is still ahead.
The condition of the soybean crop in the state is still in good condition, but if the rainfall this weekend is disappointing, the crop conditions will start to deteriorate very quickly. The average soybean yield in north-central Rio Grande do Sul is expected to be 50 sacks per hectare (3,000 kg/ha or 43.5 bu/ac), but if the rainfall is disappointing this weekend, the expected yields could decline as much as 5 sacks per hectare (300 kg/ha or 4 bu/ac) next week.
The month of February will be critical for the soybean crop in Rio Grande do Sul as well as in Santa Catarina and southern Parana. The weather conditions over the next thirty days will determine the final outcome of the crop. Conab is estimating that the statewide soybean yield will average 2,640 kg/ha (38.3 bu/ac) and that the state will produce 12.19 million tons of soybeans.