Nov 12, 2010
Soybeans in Southern Brazil Could Feel Affects of La Nina
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Planting conditions in central Brazil have improved with recent rainfall and now that approximately half of the Brazilian 2010/11 soybean crop has been planted, the second half of the planting is expected to proceed normally. The biggest concern for Brazilian farmers continues to be the potential for dryer than normal weather during November and December resulting from La Nina.
Meteorologist in Brazil continue to predict that La Nina will result in dryer than normal conditions during November and December especially in southern Brazil. They are predicting that La Nina could result in fewer showers, lighter amounts than normal, and showers that are poorly distributed. The state where the effect could be the most pronounced is Rio Grande do Sul, which is the third leading soybean producing state in Brazil and responsible for approximately 17% of the soybean acreage in the country. Other states that could be affected as well include Santa Catarina, Parana, and Mato Grosso do Sul.
After a slow start to the rainy season in central Brazil, the rainfall during November and December is expected to be about normal. Areas of Mato Grosso, Goias, and Mato Grosso do Sul are forecasted to receive between four to six inches of rainfall before the middle of next week. With the return of more numerous showers, the weather in central Brazil has improved, but it still would not be considered better than average. Meteorologist are predicting heavier than normal rainfall during the early harvest in Mato Grosso, which could make harvesting problematic. In fact, the problem in Mato Grosso last year was too much rain and not too little.
Much of the full season corn in southern Brazil was planted in a relative narrow window starting in early October, which means that it will be pollinating in a narrow window as well. The majority of the corn in southern Brazil and in Argentina will be pollinating during the month of December which is going to make adequate rainfall during the month critical for the success of the crop.