Sep 08, 2010
Initial Look at Brazil's 2010/11 Growing Season
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Below is our first look at the Brazilian 2010/11 growing season. Only a small amount of corn has been planted in Rio Grande do Sul thus far, but corn planting should also begin in Parana maybe by the end of this week. No soybeans have yet been planted in Brazil.
Brazil Current Weather - We are approaching the end of what has been an extended and dryer than normal dry season. The dry season in central Brazil is famous for being hot and dry, but this year it has been exceptionally dry. The last meaningful rainfall in central Brazil occurred in early April. Usually during the dry season there may be a few episodes of light drizzly type of rain, but not even that has occurred this year. As an example of just how dry it has been, the Cuiaba River, which is one of the principal rivers in southern Mato Grosso, has not been this low since 1970 or forty years ago.
The dry weather has also extended further south in Brazil than normal. Parts of Sao Paulo state, is the driest it has been in 20 years. The lack of rainfall has already negatively impacted the sugarcane crop in Sao Paulo as well as the wheat crop in northern Parana. Basically, the only major agricultural state to receive rainfall over the last four months has been Rio Grande do Sul in far southern Brazil.
When will the dry season end? Well, that is the question everyone is asking. There were a few showers in western Mato Grosso earlier last week, but they were light and widely scattered. The vast majority of Mato Grosso, as well as the rest of central Brazil, has not received any significant moisture in over four months. Its takes at least two or three rains before you can say with any confidence that the rainy season has started.
Sometime in the next two weeks the first rain of the season may occur, but that remains speculation at this point. Meteorologist in Brazil are predicting that rainfall should remain below normal through September and October and only returning to normal levels during the second half of November. Last year, the rains began in early September, but that was the exception of recent years. During the 2007/08 and 2008/09 growing seasons, the rains did not start until later in October.
Brazilian Corn - Full season corn is the first summer crop to be planted in Brazil and if the conditions are favorable, the farmers in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul would like to start planting their corn by the end of August or early in September. In central Brazil, full season corn would be planted as soon as the rains begin, generally sometime in September. September is the principal month for planting full season corn in Brazil.
Full season corn can be planted in Parana until the first half of October without any expected yield loss. In Rio Grande do Sul, the full season corn can be planted until the end of October. If planting is delayed past the middle or the end of October, generally lower yields are expected.
Farmers in Rio Grande do Sul have managed to plant approximately 90,000 hectares of their 2010/11 corn crop (10-15% of the expected 2010/11 corn acreage in the state), but heavy rainfall last week and a return of cold weather over the weekend has slowed planting progress. The earlier planted corn in the state is encountering difficulties in germination and stand establishment due to the wet and cold conditions and some of the corn will need to be replanted. As of this writing, there have not been any reports of corn being planted in Parana, which is the largest corn-producing state in Brazil, or in central Brazil.
In fact, there was another episode of frost in the higher elevations of Rio Grande do Sul over this past weekend. In some locations, this is the third or fourth time this year that the temperatures have dropped to below freezing and it has snowed several times this year in Rio Grande do Sul. Repeated cold episodes such as this are extremely rare given the fact that the state may go years between snowfalls.
Brazilian Soybeans - The first soybeans planted in Brazil are always planted in central Mato Grosso, but soybean planting is prohibited in the state until September 16th. That is the end of the 90-day soybean free period that has been implemented in most of central Brazil over the last three to five years. If the planting conditions are favorable, farmers can start planting on September 16th. Since that is only 10 days away and there is no significant rainfall in the near-term forecast, it seems unlikely that soybean planting will commence on September 16th this year.
Soybean farmers will not risk planting their crop until there have been at least two rains of an inch or more. If they plant their soybeans after the first rain, the young seedlings might die if the second rain doesn't occur for several more weeks. At the start of the rainy season, the temperatures are very hot, easily surpassing the 100 degree mark most days. The concern is that the soybeans might germinate, but there may be several weeks before the second or third rain occurs. In the mean time, hot and dry conditions could kill the young seedlings and replanting will be required. Therefore, farmers in Brazil will wait to plant until the rainfall is enough to insure seedling survival.
The soybean planting window in Brazil is very wide and soybean yields do not start to diminish until soybean planting is delayed until early December. October is the main soybean planting month in central Brazil and November is the main month is southern Brazil.
If soybean planting is delayed, then there will be a corresponding delay in the start of soybean exports out of Brazil. During the 2009/11 growing season, soybeans were planted on September 16th in Mato Grosso and some of those soybeans were harvested before the end of December. If soybean planting is delayed until early October or even later, then there will not be any soybeans harvested in Brazil before early January and as a result, the start of the Brazilian soybean export season will be delayed as well.
Brazilian Cotton - The two principal regions of cotton production in Brazil are in Mato Grosso, which is located in the center-west region of Brazil, and Bahia, located in northeastern Brazil. In Mato Grosso the full season cotton is planted during December or early January. The safrinha cotton in Mato Grosso, which is planted after the soybeans are harvested, can be planted until the end of February. There is always ample soil moisture during this time of the year, so planting delays due to dry conditions are never a problem. In Bahia the main planting period for cotton is January and February and once again dryness concerns are generally not a problem at that time of the year in Bahia.
Brazilian Rice - The farmers in Rio Grande do Sul produce approximately two thirds of the rice in Brazil and all the rice in the state is flood irrigated. Rice planting in the state usually takes place during November or early December. If there is going to be delays in planting the rice, it usually is the result of too much rain, which was the case last year.
Brazilian Wheat - Ninety percent all the wheat grown in Brazil is planted in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. The wheat is planted in May or June and it is harvested in October and November. Virtually 100% all the wheat grown in southern Brazil is followed by soybeans once the wheat is harvested. Some of the early maturing wheat is starting to shoot heads, but most of the crop is still in vegetative development.